000
AGXX40 KNHC 150738
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
338 AM EDT SAT OCT 15 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE
THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS N OF THE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
LINGERING OVER THE WESTERN GULF...WHILE A SHEAR LINE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH 23N86W TO THE SW GULF NEAR
20N93W. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH
SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS NEAR
AND JUST N OF THE SHEAR LINE AXIS WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE NEAR AND JUST N OF THE
SHEAR LINE AXIS...AND MAINLY 2-4 FT ELSEWHERE. BROAD AND WEAK
SURFACE TROUGHING MAY MOVE FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN INTO THE SE AND
S CENTRAL GULF WATERS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE N OF
THE AREA.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N TO S ALONG 80W. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED
WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH AXIS...GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND MAINLY MODERATE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE S
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND MAINLY 2-FT ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT 1-3 FT IN
THE LEE OF CUBA AND WITHIN 60 NM OF NICARAGUA. BROAD TROUGHING
WILL PERSIST IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND. A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGHING EARLY NEXT
WEEK...DRIFTING W-NW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A SHEAR LINE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 25N65W TO 25N75W TO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH
SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS N OF
THE SHEAR LINE...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS S OF THE SHEAR LINE. 
SEAS ARE IN THE 6-9 FT RANGE N OF THE SHEAR LINE...AND 4-6 FT S OF
THE SHEAR LINE...EXCEPT 1-3 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE SHEAR LINE
WILL MEANDER AND GRADUALLY BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH
EASTERLY FLOW. BROAD TROUGHING ALONG 24N WILL DEVELOP MON NIGHT
THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH WEAK LOW PRES POSSIBLY FORMING ALONG IT BY
THE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LARGE NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE BASIN LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.