000 AGXX40 KNHC 141702 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 102 PM EDT FRI OCT 14 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS NORTH OF THE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS LINGERING OVER THE SW GULF. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE SE GULF...LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE SW GULF...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE SE GULF...2-3 FT OVER THE SW GULF...AND 3-5 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN WATERS THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE... CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED INTO THE W CARIBBEAN WHILE A BROAD TROUGH PREVAILS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY... AND CMAN DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...3-4 FT OVER THE N CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN... 1-3 FT IN THE W CARIBBEAN...AND 4-5 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MERGE WITH THE BROAD TROUGH BY SAT. THIS MERGED TROUGH AND TROPICAL WAVE WILL DEVELOP INTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND WHERE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 25N65W TO THE SE BAHAMAS WHILE A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM 27N75W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS AND LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE 6-9 FT RANGE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS...5-7 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS...AND 1-3 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE SHEAR LINE WILL GRADUALLY BECOME DIFFUSE BY SAT WHILE THE TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY FLOW. LARGE NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE BASIN LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.