000
AGXX40 KNHC 140713
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
313 AM EDT FRI OCT 14 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS NORTH OF THE AREA. LATEST SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA
DEPICT AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE SE AND S CENTRAL
GULF TO THE N OF A SHEAR LINE WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA TO THE NE TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS OVER THE SW GULF...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 5-8 FT RANGE OVER
THE SE GULF...2-3 FT OVER THE SW GULF...AND 3-5 FT OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN WATERS THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE N OF
THE AREA.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO THE W
CARIBBEAN WHILE A BROAD TROUGH PREVAILS OVER THE WESTERN WATERS.
LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...
AND CMAN DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE S CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE OVER THE EASTERN AND
S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...1-3 FT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN...2-4 FT
ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN...AND 4-6 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC
WATERS. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE W CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY
AND THEN MERGE INTO BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 27N65W TO THE SE BAHAMAS WILL MOVE E
THROUGH TONIGHT. A SHEAR LINE FROM 27N70W TO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA WILL GRADUALLY BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH EARLY SAT. LATEST
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN
DATA DEPICT FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 27N BETWEEN 60W
AND 65W E OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS...AND FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS JUST N OF THE SHEAR LINE. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 7-10 FT RANGE N OF
23N OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS...AND 5-7 FT S OF 23N. SEAS IN THE 1-2
FT RANGE PREVAIL WEST OF THE BAHAMAS. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD DOWN
FROM THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SUPPORTING
MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY FLOW. LARGE NORTHERLY SWELLS
WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE BASIN LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.