000
AGXX40 KNHC 130633
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
233 AM EDT THU OCT 13 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS NORTH OF THE AREA WHILE A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE FAR SW GULF WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP AND BUOY DATA SHOW GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS...EXCEPT
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE SW GULF. SEAS ARE 3-5 FT ACROSS
MOST OF THE BASIN. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN WATERS THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA.
SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH FRI
WITH BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THIS WEEKEND.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. LATEST
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP AND BUOY DATA
SHOW GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
AND THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...AND LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. SEAS ARE 2-4 FT W OF 75W...3-5 FT E
OF 75W IN THE CARIBBEAN...AND 4-7 FT IN TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS.
THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND
THEN MERGE INTO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
THE SW CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HURRICANE NICOLE HAS MOVED N OF 30N AND WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE
FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY AS IT RECURVES NE TOWARD BERMUDA. LATEST
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP AND BUOY DATA
SHOW FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS OVER THE WATERS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE BAHAMAS...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE. LARGE 8-14
FT SEAS ARE NE OF THE BAHAMAS...WITH 1-3 FT SEAS W OF BAHAMAS.
LINGERING N TO NE SWELL WILL BE THE MAIN MARINE HAZARD IMPACTING
NEARLY THE ENTIRE BASIN OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH FRI. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH SAT AS NICOLE MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA. ANOTHER SET OF LARGE NE SWELL GENERATED BY AN EXPANDING WIND
FIELD OF NICOLE AS IT UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL
REACH THE NE WATERS LATE SUN INTO MON.

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W...
     HURRICANE WARNING EARLY TODAY.
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.