000 AGXX40 KNHC 121705 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EDT WED OCT 12 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS NORTH OF THE AREA WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH LIES OVER THE SW GULF WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS...EXCEPT LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE SW GULF. SEAS ARE IN THE 5-6 FT RANGE OVER THE NE GULF...3-4 FT OVER THE SW GULF...AND 4-5 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO MEXICO TODAY. ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN WATERS THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE... CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH FRI WITH BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THIS WEEKEND. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING INTO THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY... AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS W OF 55W AND S OF 19N. SEAS ARE IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND 5-6 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT INTO THU THEN LINGER THERE FOR SEVERAL DAYS...WITH POSSIBLE LOW PRES FORMING ALONG IT LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD SUN OR MON. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE E CARIBBEAN WILL REACH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THU AND THEN MERGE INTO A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HURRICANE NICOLE IS MOVING THROUGH THE NE WATERS WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 85 KT GUSTING TO 105 KT AND SEAS REACHING NEAR 30 FT. OUTSIDE OF NICOLE...LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS COVERING THE NORTHERN WATERS...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 8-14 FT RANGE OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS...AND 1-3 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. NICOLE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY THU MORNING. LINGERING SWELL WILL BE THE PRIMARY MARINE HAZARD IMPACTING NEARLY THE ENTIRE BASIN OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH FRI. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND AS NICOLE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. ANOTHER SET OF LARGE NE SWELL GENERATED BY AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD OF NICOLE AS IT UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL REACH THE NE WATERS LATE THIS WEEKEND. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... HURRICANE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM WARNING THU. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.