000 AGXX40 KNHC 111841 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 241 PM EDT TUE OCT 11 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS OVER CNTRL AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE BASIN THOUGH SAT. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WRN GULF ALONG 96W N OF 21N WILL SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND REACH THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND MEXICO TONIGHT. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN WATERS SAT THROUGH SUN...AND WEAKEN OVER THE SW GULF SUN NIGHT INTO MON. SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT IN THE FAR SE GULF WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 6 FT BY FRI. SEAS WILL BE RATHER LOW FRI THROUGH MON NIGHT ACROSS THE BASIN UNDER WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGING THAT SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WRN CARIBBEAN SAT THROUGH MON NIGHT. RECENTLY UPGRADED HURCN NICOLE N OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN A WEAK PRES PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THU. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE INLAND CENTRAL AMERICA THIS EVENING AFTERNOON. A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN MOVING WESTWARD WILL REACH THE WRN CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT INTO THU THEN LINGER THERE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLE LOW PRES FORMING ALONG IT AS GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST. A TROPICAL WAVE JUST SE OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 15N WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH WED NIGHT...THE ERN CARIBBEAN THU THROUGH FRI...THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...AND THE WRN CARIBBEAN SEA SUN THROUGH MON NIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. RECENTLY UPGRADED HRCN TS NICOLE NEAR 27.3N 66.3W ID MOVING SLOWLY NW WITH MAX WINDS 65 KT GUSTS TO 80 KT. NICOLE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT REACHES NEAR 27.7N 66.4W THIS EVENING... NEAR 28.6N 66.9W WED MORNING...AND TO NEAR 30.2N 66.6W BY WED EVENING WITH MAX WINDS 80 KT GUSTS TO 100 KT. NICOLE IS FORECAST TO RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR 32.2N 65.4W BY THU MORNING. BUOY AND ALTIMETER DATA FROM THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERY LARGE AREA OF 10 TO 18 FT SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT SUPPORTING OVER THE WRN PORTION WHERE STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGING IS PRESENT. AS IMPLIED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...THE LARGE SWELL WILL THE MAIN MARINE HAZARD TO IMPACT THE JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE BASIN N AND NE OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH FRI BEFORE SUBSIDING ALL ZONES SAT THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH SEAS LOWERING TO THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE NE OF THE BAHAMAS EXCEPT FOR 7 TO 10 FT LINGERING IN THE FAR NE SECTION OF ZONE 115 BY LATE MON. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... HURRICANE WARNING THROUGH WED NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM WARNING THU. .AMZ121...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... HURRICANE WARNING TONIGHT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.