000 AGXX40 KNHC 110745 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 345 AM EDT TUE OCT 11 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS OVER MOST OF THE BASIN TODAY. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE W GULF FROM GALVESTON TEXAS TO 21N93W WILL DRIFT WESTWARD TO THE COASTS OF S TEXAS AND NE MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE N GULF COAST THU BUT PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL PREVENT IT FROM REACHING THE GULF OF MEXICO. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. T.S. NICOLE N OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THU. A SERIES OF TROPICAL WAVES WILL MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL AMERICA TONIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE TROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND WED. A THIRD WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 52W IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES WED THEN MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS NICOLE MOVES NORTHWARD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. TS NICOLE IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY. IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWEST THEN NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS IT INTENSIFIES INTO A HURRICANE...THEN RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD N OF 30N. BUOY AND ALTIMETER DATA SHOW AN UNUSUALLY LARGE AREA OF 10 TO 20 FT SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG NE WINDS W OF A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE REMNANTS OF MATTHEW. BUOY 41048 W OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N 69.5W REPORTED 20-21 FT SEAS BETWEEN 3 PM AND 7 PM EDT MON...AND BUOY 41047 NEAR 27.5N 71.5W IS REPORTING 19-20 FT SEAS THIS MORNING. THIS INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF 15-20 FT COMBINED SEAS IS SWEEPING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT NOT GENERATED BY NICOLE. THE SWELL WILL AFFECT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING E OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND ATLANTIC EXPOSURES OF THE BAHAMAS. ONCE NICOLE LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY...SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 10 FT W OF 65W THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY. HURRICANE WARNING TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. .AMZ121...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.