000 AGXX40 KNHC 100745 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 345 AM EDT MON OCT 10 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS OVER MOST OF THE BASIN THROUGH TONIGHT. FRESH NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST OF VERACRUZ IN THE SW GULF WITH SEAS TO 6 FT. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP TODAY OVER THE W GULF AND DRIFT WESTWARD INTO S TEXAS AND NE MEXICO WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH OVER THE SE U.S. AND THE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS E OF THE TROUGH THROUGH WED. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. T.S. NICOLE N OF THE AREA IN THE WESTERN ATLC WILL HELP MAINTAIN A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION SEVERAL MORE DAYS. A SERIES OF TROPICAL WAVES WILL MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE S OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ALONG 76W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO CENTRAL AMERICA TUE NIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A THIRD WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 46W IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES WED NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE NEAR THE LEEWARD AND ATLC WATERS E OF 65W THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TROPICAL STORM NICOLE STARTING TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD. IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH ROUGHLY BETWEEN 65W AND 68W THROUGH WED NIGHT THEN RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD N OF 30N. A COLD FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM 31N 69W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY NW OF NICOLE. FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER A LARGE SWATH OF THE AREA WEST OF THE FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF LARGE SWELL SWEEPING SOUTHWARD FROM MATTHEW AND STRONG WINDS W OF THE FRONT...IN ADDITION TO SWELL GENERATED BY NICOLE...WILL PRODUCE AN UNUSUALLY GENERATE A LARGE AREA OF 8 TO 15 FT SEAS IN THE WATERS NORTH AND EAST OF THE BAHAMAS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SWELL WILL AFFECT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING E OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND ATLANTIC EXPOSURES OF THE BAHAMAS. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HURRICANE WARNING TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. .AMZ121...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY. HURRICANE WARNING TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.