000 AGXX40 KNHC 091800 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT SUN OCT 9 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WINDS. WW3 BLENDED WITH TAFB NWPS MODEL FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT IS RAPIDLY MOVING SE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL EXIT THE BASIN TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GULF BASIN THROUGH MONDAY. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT AND THE SOUTHWEST GULF WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF VERA CRUZ TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. GENERALLY 4 TO 6 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...EXCEPT SEAS NEARING 8 FT WITH THE HIGHER WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF VERA CRUZ. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EARLY IN THE WEEK OVER THE WESTERN GULF WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS OVER THE GULF TO THE EAST OF THIS TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WINDS. WW3 BLENDED WITH TAFB NWPS MODEL FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. NEARLY STATIONARY T.S. NICOLE REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA IN THE WESTERN ATLC. THIS WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS. A SERIES OF TROPICAL WAVES WILL MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA ALONG 73W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTO CENTRAL AMERICA TUESDAY NIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL CROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES MONDAY MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A THIRD WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 42W IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL REACH THE NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT...THEN STALL OUT FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO BELIZE MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN DISSIPATE THROUGH TUE. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED N OF THIS FRONT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WINDS. WW3 BLENDED WITH TAFB NWPS MODEL FOR WAVES. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. NEARLY STATIONARY TROPICAL STORM NICOLE CENTERED NEAR 24.0N 65.4W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN WATERS TONIGHT AND BECOME STATIONARY FROM NEAR 31N67W TO CENTRAL CUBA LATE MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY ON EVENTUALLY HAVING AN INTENSIFYING NICOLE GETTING PICKED UP BY A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MID TO LATE THIS WEEK AND ACCELERATING THE CYCLONE NE OF OUR AREA. IN THE MEANTIME...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING SWELL FROM POST- TROPICAL CYCLONE MATTHEW N OF OUR AREA...SWELL GENERATED BY FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS N OF THE COLD FRONT...AND SWELL GENERATED BY TROPICAL CYCLONE NICOLE WILL SUPPORT A LARGE AREA OF SWELL OF 8 TO 15 FT OVER THE WATERS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE BAHAMAS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SWELL WILL AFFECT OFFSHORES OF NORTH FLORIDA AND ATLANTIC EXPOSURES OF THE EASTERN BAHAMAS. SEAS TO 20 TO 25 FT WILL BE LIKELY NEAR THE CENTER OF NICOLE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SEAS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 30 FT IF NICOLE INTENSIFIES TO A HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY AS CURRENTLY FORECAST. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING MON INTO MON NIGHT. .AMZ121...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO MON NIGHT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.