000 AGXX40 KNHC 090725 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 325 AM EDT SUN OCT 9 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE SW GULF WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SE ACROSS THE BASIN TODAY AND EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS IN THE NE GULF NORTH OF THE FRONT. WEAK TEMPERATURE CONTRAST AND MINIMAL SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY. EXPECT NW WINDS IN SW GULF NEAR THE COAST OF VERACRUZ TO REACH 20-25 KT TONIGHT AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH MON MORNING...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 7-8 FT IN THE AREA OF HIGHEST WINDS. 4-6 FT SEAS WILL COVER MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF THE FRONT TODAY. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF MON THEN DRIFT WEST TO THE TEXAS AND NE MEXICO COAST THROUGH TUE NIGHT. EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION EAST OF THE TROUGH THROUGH WED. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE. NEARLY STATIONARY T.S. NICOLE N OF THE AREA IN THE WESTERN ATLC WILL HELP MAINTAIN A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS. A SERIES OF TROPICAL WAVES WILL MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WED. A TROPICAL WAVE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA ALONG 70W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTO CENTRAL AMERICA TUE NIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING 55W WILL REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES MON MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A THIRD WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 39W IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES WED NIGHT. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE WATERS NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT S AND SE OF NICOLE. A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL REACH THE NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT...THEN BECOME DIFFUSE FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO BELIZE THROUGH TUE. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED N OF THIS FRONT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. TROPICAL STORM NICOLE CENTERED NEAR 24.3N 65.7W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY TODAY...THEN SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH ALONG 66W THROUGH WED NIGHT. A COMPLEX BINARY INTERACTION WITH THE REMNANT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OF MATTHEW MAY FURTHER COMPLICATE THE FORECAST. THE GFS SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE THE BEST RESOLVING THIS UNUSUAL SCENARIO AND WAS USED TO POPULATE THE FORECAST GRIDS. GFS MODEL INDICATES THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL QUICKLY CROSS FLORIDA TODAY AND SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS W OF 70W THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...THEN BECOME ENTANGLED BETWEEN THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW OF MATTHEW TO THE NORTH AND TS NICOLE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY FROM 30N67W TO CENTRAL CUBA ON MONDAY. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED NW OF THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS WHILE CYCLONIC WINDS WILL BE FOUND EAST OF THE FRONT FEEDING INTO NICOLE. BY TUE...GFS MODEL SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS NORTH OF 25N AND UNUSUALLY LARGE AREA OF 8-14 FT SEAS IN N SWELL COVERING MOST OF THE AREA NE OF THE BAHAMAS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE W OF 72W THROUGH THU. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND LARGE SEAS TO 20 FT ARE EXPECTED E OF 70W FROM TS NICOLE AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH THROUGH ZONES AMZ121 AND AMZ115. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING MON INTO MON NIGHT. .AMZ121...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO MON NIGHT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.