000 AGXX40 KNHC 081805 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT OCT 8 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT MOVING SE ACROSS THE NW GULF WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL GULF LATER TODAY AND THEN THE SE GULF SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN EXIT THE BASIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. MAINLY FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND SW GULF ALONG THE COAST OF VERA CRUZ ARE FORECAST TO REACH 20 TO 25 KT TONIGHT. THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF VERA CRUZ WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS OF 5 TO 6 FT WILL COVER MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS TO 8 FT OVER THE SW GULF NEAR VERA CRUZ...WHERE THE STRONGER WINDS ARE OCCURRING. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT OVER THE BASIN. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE TRADE WIND PATTERN OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL BE DISRUPTED FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS UNTIL THE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE WESTERN ATLC EXIT THE AREA. MODERATE TRADES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN...EXCEPT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE PASSING PUERTO RICO AND POINTS SOUTHWARD OVER THE CARIBBEAN TODAY WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUNDAY AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 51W OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL CROSS 55W AND OVER OUR FORECAST ZONES SUNDAY...REACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND AND MAY REACH THE NW CARIBBEAN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES SE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEARLY NEXT WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED N OF THIS FRONT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN LOW. THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MATTHEW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA OVER COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA. NEAR GALE WINDS ON THE PERIPHERY OF MATTHEW ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE NW WATERS WITH SEAS RANGING FROM NEAR 8 FT JUST N OF THE NW BAHAMAS TO NEAR 18 FT ALONG 31N. LARGE SEAS AND FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER WATERS NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH MONDAY...AS THE COMBINATION OF A WEAKENING MATTHEW TO THE N OF THE AREA AND A COLD FRONT CROSSING OUR NW WATERS RE-ENFORCE THE WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE AREA. WITH MATTHEW NOW FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AFTER MONDAY...SEAS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH OVER THE NW WATERS THROUGH EARLY TO MIDDLE NEXT WEEK THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. EVEN SO...LARGE SWELL OF 8 TO 13 FT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO LINGER NW OF THE BAHAMAS MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. FURTHER EAST...TROPICAL STORM NICOLE IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH UNDER STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR. NICOLE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY OVER OUR NE WATERS SUPPORTING SEAS TO 16 OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH SEAS POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 18 TO 20 FT EARLY NEXT WEEK IF THE CYCLONE RE-INTENSIFIES SLIGHTLY AS CURRENTLY FORECAST. AS NICOLE MOVES NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE LARGE SWELL GENERATED BY THE STORM WILL MERGE WITH LARGE SWELL GENERATED BY WHAT IS LEFT OF MATTHEW AND THE COLD FRONT. MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN CHANGING QUITE A BIT THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS FOR THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD FOR BOTH TROPICAL CYCLONES. THEREFORE...THE CONFIDENCE FOR THE OFFSHORE WINDS AND SEAS FORECAST FOR THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS LOW. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ121...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO SUN NIGHT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.