000 AGXX40 KNHC 071755 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 155 PM EDT FRI OCT 7 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS OVER THE NE GULF ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRINGES OF HURRICANE MATTHEW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT AS MATTHEW MOVES N ALONG THE NE FLORIDA COAST. AS MATTHEW LIFTS NORTH OF 31N EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THE WINDS OVER THE NE GULF WILL DIMINISH. SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT WILL CONTINUE AS WELL UNTIL THE WINDS DIMINISH. A COLD FRONT OVER TEXAS WILL MOVE SE OVER THE NW GULF EARLY SATURDAY...THEN EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY SUN. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN TO THE NW OF THE FRONT. BRIEFLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH FRESH TO STRONG OVER THE NORTHERN GULF LATE SATURDAY. WINDS OVER THE SW GULF NEAR VERA CRUZ ARE FORECAST TO BECOME STRONG SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN POSSIBLY NEAR GALE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. BEYOND SUNDAY THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT WILL OCCUR WITH WHAT IS LEFT OF MATTHEW AS IT COMPLETES AN EXPECTED RE- CURVATURE BACK TO THE BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE VERY WEAK BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE BAHAMAS A SECOND TIME AROUND. HOWEVER...THE INTERACTION OF THIS LOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WILL HAVE AN EFFECT AS TO HOW MUCH A RE- ENFORCEMENT OF NORTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE GULF BASIN. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE TRADE WIND PATTERN OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS DISRUPTED DUE TO THE LACK OF A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLANTIC. MAINLY MODERATE TRADES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXCEPT GENTLE VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WELL TO THE S OF HURRICANE MATTHEW WILL LIKELY PERSIST AND DRIFT EASTWARD THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE HELPING TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO ON SAT...THEN SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN. ENHANCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. LOW CONFIDENCE. HURRICANE MATTHEW MOVING NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA WILL HUG THE COASTLINE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS IT MOVES N OF OUR AREA WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. LARGE SEAS AND STRONG WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER WATERS NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO MATTHEW. FURTHER EAST...TROPICAL STORM NICOLE IS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NE WATERS. EXPECT A COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS RESULTING A LARGE AREA OF HIGH WINDS AND LARGE SEAS OVER NORTHERN WATERS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACKS OF MATTHEW AND NICOLE IS LOW AFTER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MATTHEW IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO CURVE SE AND BACK TOWARD FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF LARGE SWELL N OF THE BAHAMAS. NICOLE WILL MEANDER ALONG OR JUST EAST OF ZONES AMZ115 AND AMZ121. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE NW WATERS BY SUNDAY WHICH WILL ALSO REINFORCE LARGE SEAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... HURRICANE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. .AMZ121...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO SAT NIGHT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.