000 AGXX40 KNHC 070750 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 350 AM EDT FRI OCT 7 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE FROM THE SE UNITED STATES TO THE SW GULF WILL SHIFT WESTWARD WHILE HURRICANE MATTHEW IN THE ATLANTIC MOVES NORTHWARD. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN MATTHEW AND THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NW TO N WINDS OVER THE NE GULF THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO 7 FT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NW GULF SAT AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN FLORIDA TO SOUTHERN MEXICO SUNDAY. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO 7 FT. OVER THE SW GULF SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 9 FT SUN MORNING WITH STRONG TO NEAR GALE N TO NW WINDS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE TRADE WIND PATTERN OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS DISRUPTED DUE TO THE LACK OF A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLANTIC. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED W OF 75W...WITH MODERATE TRADES ELSEWHERE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO WILL MOVE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SATURDAY. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. LOW CONFIDENCE. HURRICANE MATTHEW MOVING NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE COAST OF FLORIDA WILL HUG THE COASTLINE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. LARGE SEAS AND STRONG WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER WATERS NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH SUNDAY. FURTHER EAST...HURRICANE NICOLE IS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NE WATERS. EXPECT A COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS RESULTING A LARGE AREA OF HIGH WINDS AND LARGE SEAS OVER NORTHERN WATERS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACKS OF MATTHEW AND NICOLE IS LOW AFTER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MATTHEW IS FORECAST TO CURVE SE AND BACK TOWARD FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF LARGE SWELL N OF THE BAHAMAS. NICOLE WILL MEANDER ALONG OR JUST EAST OF ZONES AMZ115 AND AMZ121. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE NW WATERS BY SUNDAY WHICH WILL ALSO REINFORCE LARGE SEAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... HURRICANE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM WARNING SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING SAT NIGHT. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... HURRICANE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM WARNING SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. .AMZ117...BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAY SAL BANK... TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY. .AMZ121...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... HURRICANE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO SAT NIGHT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.