000 AGXX40 KNHC 061835 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 235 PM EDT THU OCT 6 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SE UNITED STATES TO THE SW GULF WILL SLIDE WESTWARD OVER THE NW GULF COAST THROUGH LATE TODAY. HURRICANE MATTHEW WILL PASS EAST OF THE BASIN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN MATTHEW AND THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N TO NE WINDS OVER THE NE GULF TODAY...THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS OVER THE NE GULF WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. MAINLY GENTLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SW GULF AND MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT SUPPORTING SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT. BY SATURDAY... A COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF THE NW GULF COAST AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS FRONT SHOULD CROSS INTO THE EASTERN GULF BY SUNDAY. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO 7 FT. OVER THE SW GULF SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 9 FT SUN MORNING WITH STRONG TO NEAR GALE NW WINDS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. ALTHOUGH MATTHEW IS INCREASING ITS DISTANCE FROM THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN TODAY...THE BROAD CIRCULATION WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH S TO SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND LEE OF THE EASTERN HALF OF CUBA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE TRADE WIND PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN IS OTHERWISE DISRUPTED DUE TO THE LACK OF SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE W ATLANTIC. THE RESULT WILL BE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS W OF 75W THROUGH TONIGHT. E OF 75W MAINLY MODERATE TRADES ARE EXPECTED. THESE MODERATE TRADES WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN S OF 18N FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL REACH PUERTO RICO ON FRI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON SAT. THIS WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC ON SUN. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN AREA OF 8 TO 9 FT SEAS ON THE E SIDE OF THIS WAVE AXIS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE...THEN LOW AFTER SAT. HURRICANE MATTHEW WAS NEAR 25.1N 77.8W 940 MB AT 11 AM EDT MOVING NW AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. ON THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...THE EYE OF MATTHEW SHOULD PASS NEAR GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND THIS EVENING...AND MOVE VERY CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WILL CONTINUE WITHIN ABOUT 210 NM NE QUADRANT OF CENTER...AND 120 NM ELSEWHERE TO JUST OFFSHORE THE FLORIDA COAST. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS SE FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. SWELLS GENERATED BY MATTHEW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG THE E COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE SE UNITED STATES TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE STORM IS THEN FORECAST TO RE-CURVE SE AND BACK ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF LARGE SWELL GENERATION ALONG AND N OF THE NW BAHAMAS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. HURRICANE NICOLE WILL REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO 65W OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS HOURS ...WHILE MEANDERING ALONG OR JUST EAST OF ZONES AMZ115 AND AMZ121. SEAS OF 14 TO 20 FT GENERATED BY NICOLE ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS FORECAST ZONE AMZ115 THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST FOR MATTHEW AND NICOLE BEYOND DAY 2...THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST ACROSS OUR NORTHERN WATERS IS LOW. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE NW WATERS BY SUNDAY WHICH WILL ALSO REINFORCE LARGE SEAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY. HURRICANE WARNING TONIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM WARNING SAT. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... HURRICANE WARNING TODAY INTO SAT. .AMZ117...BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAY SAL BANK... HURRICANE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. .AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY. .AMZ121...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY. TROPICAL STORM WARNING FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.