000 AGXX40 KNHC 060731 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 331 AM EDT THU OCT 6 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SE UNITED STATES TO THE SW GULF WILL SLIDE WESTWARD OVER THE NW GULF COAST THROUGH LATE TODAY. HURRICANE MATTHEW WILL PASS EAST OF THE BASIN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN MATTHEW AND THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N TO NE WINDS OVER THE NE GULF TODAY...THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS OVER THE NE GULF WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. MAINLY GENTLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SW GULF AND MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT SUPPORTING SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT. BY SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF THE NW GULF COAST AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS FRONT SHOULD CROSS INTO THE EASTERN GULF BY SUNDAY. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 6-7 FT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-9 FT ACROSS THE SW GULF BY LATE SUN MORNING WITH NW WINDS OF 25-30 KT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS OVER HURRICANE MATTHEW INDICATES FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE TODAY...BUT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH S-SW WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF MATTHEW ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE LEE OF CUBA THROUGH TONIGHT. EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW IS FORECAST TO RE-ESTABLISH ACROSS THE BASIN ON FRI...PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. S-SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NW CARIBBEAN AS MATTHEW MOVES NORTHWARD NEAR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL REACH PUERTO RICO ON FRI...AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON SAT. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC ON SUN. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN AREA OF 8-9 FT SEAS ON THE E SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE HURRICANE MATTHEW IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. AT 06/0300 UTC...IT WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 76.4W 961 MB MOVING NW AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 125 KT. ON THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...THE EYE OF MATTHEW SHOULD PASS NEAR ANDROS ISLAND AND NEW PROVIDENCE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN PASS NEAR GRAND BAHAMAS ISLAND LATE TODAY...AND MOVE VERY CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AN ALTIMETER PASS TO THE NE OF MATTHEW SHOWED SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN ABOUT 210 NM NE QUADRANT OF CENTER. THE HIGHEST SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH MATTHEW ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS OVER THE OPEN OCEAN. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE SE FLORIDA LATE TODAY. SWELLS GENERATED BY MATTHEW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE NW WATERS BY SUNDAY HELPING TO REINFORCE LARGE SEAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST FOR MATTHEW BEYOND DAY 3...THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST ACROSS OUR NORTHERN WATERS BEYOND FRIDAY IS LOW. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WILL REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO 65W OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS AS IT MAINTAINS ITS INTENSITY WITH MAX WINDS OF 55 KT GUSTS TO 65 KT. NICOLE WILL MEANDER ALONG OR JUST EAST OF ZONES AMZ115 AND AMZ121. SEAS OF 14-16 FT GENERATED BY NICOLE ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS FORECAST ZONE AMZ115 TODAY. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY. HURRICANE WARNING TONIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO FRI NIGHT. .AMZ117...BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAY SAL BANK... HURRICANE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. .AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY. .AMZ121...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY. TROPICAL STORM WARNING FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.