000 AGXX40 KNHC 051729 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 129 PM EDT WED OCT 5 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SE UNITED STATES TO THE SW GULF WILL SLIDE WESTWARD OVER THE NW GULF COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. HURRICANE MATTHEW WILL PASS EAST OF THE BASIN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN MATTHEW AND THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N TO NE WINDS OVER THE NE GULF BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS OVER THE NE GULF WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. MAINLY GENTLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SW GULF AND MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT SUPPORTING SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT. BY SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF THE NW GULF COAST AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS FRONT SHOULD CROSS INTO THE EASTERN GULF BY SUNDAY. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HURRICANE MATTHEW IS N OF EASTERN CUBA MOVING NW AT AROUND 10 KT. THE EFFECTS OF MATTHEW OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO MOVE NW OVER THE BAHAMAS. STRONG TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE PATTERN FROM MATTHEW IS DISRUPTING THE TRADE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH MAINLY MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS 3 TO 5 FT AWAY FROM THE EFFECTS FROM MATTHEW. MODERATE SE TRADES COVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY CROSSING THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FORECAST ZONES WILL CROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THU MORNING AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND PUERTO RICO THU NIGHT INTO FRI. THE WAVE WILL THEN REACH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON SAT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI...THEN LOW. HURRICANE MATTHEW IS N OF E CUBA NEAR 21.8N 75.2W 962 MB AT 11 AM EDT MOVING NW AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 125 KT. THE CENTER OF MATTHEW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS BEGINNING LATE TODAY...CROSSING THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN NEARING AND MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS TO 36 FT ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY NEAR THE HIGHEST WIND FETCH OVER THE BAHAMAS WITH 12 FT OR GREATER SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM NE OF THE CENTER...AND WESTWARD TO JUST OFFSHORE THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. SEAS OFFSHORE FLORIDA WILL BUILD TO NEAR 40 FT AS THE HURRICANE MOVES ALONG THE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LARGE SWELL FROM THE HURRICANE WILL ALSO PROPAGATE EASTWARD ACROSS OUR N ATLANTIC ZONES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE NW WATERS BY SUNDAY HELPING TO REINFORCE LARGE SEAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST FOR MATTHEW BEYOND DAY 3...THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST ACROSS OUR NORTHERN WATERS BEYOND FRIDAY IS LOW. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WILL IMPINGE ON THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MAINTAINS ITS INTENSITY NEAR MAX WINDS OF 45 KT GUSTS TO 55 KT...AND MEANDERS ALONG OR JUST EAST OF ZONE AMZ115. SEAS TO 16 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NE QUADRANT OF THIS STORM. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE SE ZONES BEGINNING THURSDAY...REACHING PUERTO RICO ON THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING THU. HURRICANE WARNING THU NIGHT. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING THU INTO THU NIGHT. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. .AMZ117...BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAY SAL BANK... HURRICANE WARNING TODAY INTO THU NIGHT. .AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. .AMZ121...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING THU. .AMZ123...ATLANTIC S OF 22N W OF 70W INCLUDING APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE... HURRICANE WARNING TODAY. TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.