000 AGXX40 KNHC 050750 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 350 AM EDT WED OCT 5 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SE CONUS DOMINATES THE GULF REGION PRODUCING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRESH NE WINDS ACROSS THE NE GULF. THIS WINDS ARE THE RESULT OF THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS AND HURRICANE MATTHEW. SEAS ARE IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF WATERS...BUT HAVE BUILT TO AROUND 6 FT ACROSS THE NE GULF. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THU. BY LATE THU AND FRI...PART OF THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE MATTHEW WILL REACH THE EASTERN GULF PRODUCING NW TO N WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 6-7 FT. A NEW COLD FRONT MAY PUSH INTO THE NW GULF BY THE END OF THE WEEK...MOVING ACROSS THE GULF DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. HURRICANE MATTHEW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED N OF CUBA MOVING TOWARD THE N AT 7 KT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY... FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWEST TURN TONIGHT. MATTHEW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THURSDAY...AND IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY NEAR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA BY THURSDAY EVENING. MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A POWERFUL HURRICANE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS OF 12 FT OF GREATER ARE NOTED MAINLY WITHIN 180 NM NE QUADRANT OF MATTHEW'S CENTER AFFECTING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SE BAHAMAS. SEAS OF 12 FT OF GREATER ARE ALSO OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A LARGE AREA OF SURROUNDING SWELL IN EXCESS OF 8 FT ARE STILL NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...PARTICULARLY N OF 15N BETWEEN 67W AND 76W...INCLUDING THE MONA PASSAGE. SWELLS GENERATED BY MATTHEW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COASTS OF HISPANIOLA...EASTERN CUBA...AND THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. AS MATTHEW CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA...EXPECT DIMINISHING WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS. AS A RESULT...MUCH MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN BY LATE TODAY. OUTSIDE OF MATTHEW...GENTLE TO MODERATE NW TO N WINDS ARE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH SE TO S WINDS ARE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...MAINLY E OF 70W. THIS IS RELATED TO THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND MATTHEW. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC IS FORECAST TO REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS EVENING...THEN WILL APPROACH PUERTO RICO THU EVENING...AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FRI EVENING. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...HURRICANE MATTHEW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED N OF CUBA MOVING TOWARD THE N AT 7 KT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH- NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWEST TURN TONIGHT. MATTHEW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THURSDAY...AND IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY NEAR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA BY THURSDAY EVENING. MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A POWERFUL HURRICANE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. AS MATTHEW PASSES THE DEEP WATER BETWEEN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS... WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REACH 28-30 FT TODAY. BUT AS MATTHEW MOVES THROUGH MUCH OF THE BAHAMAS...THE SHALLOW WATER REGION WILL LIMIT THE CONTINUATION OF EXTREME WAVE HEIGHTS. PEAK WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 22-24 FT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. AFTER MATTHEW PASSES NORTH OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATE ON FRIDAY... THE DEEP WATER CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN ALLOW WAVE HEIGHTS TO BUILD TO 30 TO 35 FT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE HURRICANE. MATTHEW WILL CROSS N OF 30N BY FRIDAY EVENING. TROPICAL STORM NICOLE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST E OF 65W. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY ON THE E SIDE OF NICOLE. SEAS OF 8-9 FT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE NE WATERS ON THU WHEN NICOLE WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO 65W. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ015...CARIBBEAN APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE... TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... HURRICANE WARNING THU INTO THU NIGHT. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING THU INTO THU NIGHT. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. .AMZ117...BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAY SAL BANK... TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY. HURRICANE WARNING TODAY INTO THU NIGHT. .AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO THU NIGHT. .AMZ123...ATLANTIC S OF 22N W OF 70W INCLUDING APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE... HURRICANE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY. TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.