000 AGXX40 KNHC 040747 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 347 AM EDT TUE OCT 4 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A REMNANT TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN GULF ALONG 94W FROM 22N TO 27N. THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TODAY. A RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REGION PRODUCING LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 2-4 FT BASED ON BUOY OBSERVATIONS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WED THROUGH FRI AS HURRICANE MATTHEW MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND OFF OR NEAR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. ELSEWHERE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODEST SEAS WILL PERSIST. A NEW COLD FRONT MAY PUSH INTO THE NW GULF BY THE END OF THE WEEK...MOVING ACROSS THE GULF DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE HURRICANE MATTHEW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH AT 6 KT...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MATTHEW WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER SOUTHWESTERN HAITI THIS MORNING...MOVE NEAR EASTERN CUBA LATE TODAY...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS INDICATES SEAS OF 28 FT WITHIN ABOUT 60 NM SE QUADRANT OF MATTHEW WITH SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER AFFECTING THE WATERS WITHIN ABOUT 210 NM TO THE SE OF THE CENTER. MATTHEW IS ALREADY DELIVERING HIGH SEAS TO THE AREA BETWEEN CUBA...JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA BASED ON AN ASCAT PASS OVER THE SYSTEM. WINDS AND SEAS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TODAY ACROSS THIS AREA AS MATTHEW MOVES ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THIS WILL MAKE THE WINDWARD PASSAGE HIGHLY DANGEROUS FOR MARINE TRAFFIC THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MEANWHILE...A LARGE AREA OF SURROUNDING SWELL IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL DOMINATE THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED. SWELLS GENERATED BY MATTHEW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COASTS OF HISPANIOLA... JAMAICA...ARUBA...COLOMBIA...EASTERN CUBA...AND THE CARIBBEAN COASTLINE OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SWELLS FROM MATTHEW WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. OUTSIDE OF MATTHEW...EXPECT GENTLE TO MODERATE NW TO N WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND MODERATE TO FRESH SE TO S WINDS ARE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...MAINLY E OF 70W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS UP TO 12-13 FT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS S OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE MONA PASSAGE WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THIS IS RELATED TO THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND MATTHEW. MUCH MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA BY LATE WED AS MATTHEW FINALLY EXITS THE BASIN. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N75W TO THE NW BAHAMAS. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ROUGHLY OVER THE SAME AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A RIDGE DOMINATES THE NE PART OF THE FORECAST REGION. CURRENTLY...PART OF MATTHEW'S CIRCULATION COVERS THE WATERS S OF 25N...AND MOST OF THE SE AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS OVER MATTHEW PROVIDES OBSERVATIONS OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS N OF HISPANIOLA...OVER TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SE BAHAMAS. MATTHEW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AS THIS DANGEROUS HURRICANE MOVES NORTHWARD...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 25N TODAY... INCLUDING THE SE AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS SOUTH OF 27N BY TONIGHT. THE ADVANCE OF HURRICANE MATTHEW WILL RESULT IN VERY HIGH SEAS BUILDING IN THE NORTHERN APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TODAY. SWELLS FROM MATTHEW WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS TODAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LARGELY DEPENDS ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF MATTHEW AS THE HURRICANE MOVES ACROSS THE SW N ATLC. THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF MATTHEW WILL LIKELY COVER MUCH OF THE SW N ATLANTIC BY WED AND THU...BEGINNING TO EXIT THE AREA TO NORTH OF 30N BY FRI NIGHT. MUCH MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF MATTHEW...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING SE ACROSS THE BASIN DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ013...CARIBBEAN N OF 18N BETWEEN 76W AND 85W INCLUDING CAYMAN BASIN... TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. .AMZ015...CARIBBEAN APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE... HURRICANE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. .AMZ021...CARIBBEAN FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W... HURRICANE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ117...BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAY SAL BANK... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT. HURRICANE WARNING WED INTO WED NIGHT. .AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING WED INTO WED NIGHT. .AMZ123...ATLANTIC S OF 22N W OF 70W INCLUDING APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY. HURRICANE WARNING TONIGHT INTO WED. TROPICAL STORM WARNING WED NIGHT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.