000 AGXX40 KNHC 031828 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 228 PM EDT MON OCT 3 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF HAS DISSIPATED LEAVING A PAIR OF TROUGHS...ONE OVER THE E CENTRAL GULF AND ANOTHER OVER THE W CENTRAL GULF. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTS OVER THE E CENTRAL GULF...ON THE EAST SIDE OF A SHARP UPPER TROUGH THAT REMAINS STATIONARY FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE S CENTRAL GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE NE U.S. THROUGH THE N CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT. EASTERLY FLOW AND SEAS WILL INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN GULF LATE WED THROUGH LATE THU AS HURRICANE WARNING MATTHEW MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. ELSEWHERE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODEST SEAS WILL PERSIST. A NEW COLD FRONT MAY PUSH INTO THE NW GULF BY THE END OF THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE HURRICANE MATTHEW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH HURRICANE WARNING MATTHEW CENTERED IN THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO MOVE N TOWARD THE WESTERN TIP OF THE SOUTH PENINSULA OF HAITI. THIS IS ALREADY DELIVERING HIGH SEAS TO THE AREA BETWEEN CUBA...JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA WITH THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS LIKELY ENTERING THE WATERS BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA. WINDS AND SEAS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TONIGHT INTO TUE AS MATTHEW MOVES ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THIS WILL MAKE THE WINDWARD PASSAGE HIGHLY DANGEROUS FOR MARINE TRAFFIC THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MEANWHILE...A LARGE AREA OF SURROUNDING SWELL IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL DOMINATE THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MID WEEK AS WELL. SWELLS GENERATED BY MATTHEW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COASTS OF PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...THE ABC ISLANDS...VENEZUELA... COLOMBIA...EASTERN CUBA...AND THE CARIBBEAN COASTLINE OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. OUTSIDE OF MATTHEW...GENTLE TO MODERATE NE WINDS ARE SEEN OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE WINDS ARE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...PARTICULARLY E OF 70W. EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE TUE DUE TO PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND MATTHEW. MUCH MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS MATTHEW EXITS THE AREA. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE A SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT DISSIPATED EARLIER...EXTENDS FROM 31N77W TO 29N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED ALONG THE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ROUGHLY OVER THE SAME AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A RIDGE DOMINATES THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST REGION. UNDER THIS WEATHER PATTERN...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E FLOW IS NOTED S OF 27N AND GENTLE TO MODERATE FLOW IS SEEN N OF 27N. ALTIMETER DATA ALONG WITH BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SEAS OF 6 TO 7 FT OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS. AS HURRICANE MATTHEW MOVES NORTHWARD...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 22N W OF 70W THROUGH TONIGHT...ACROSS THE SE AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND REGIONAL WATERS ON TUE...THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS SOUTH OF 27N BY TUE NIGHT. THE ADVANCE OF HURRICANE MATTHEW WILL RESULT IN VERY HIGH SEAS BUILDING IN THE NORTHERN APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY TONIGHT...AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS/CAICOS TUE THROUGH EARLY WED...SPREADING NORTH INTO CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH THU. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LARGELY DEPENDS ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF MATTHEW AS THE HURRICANE WARNING MOVES ACROSS THE SW N ATLC. THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF MATTHEW WILL LIKELY COVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS BY WED AND THU...BEGINNING TO EXIT THE AREA TO NORTH OF 30N BY FRI. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ013...CARIBBEAN N OF 18N BETWEEN 76W AND 85W INCLUDING CAYMAN BASIN... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT INTO TUE. .AMZ015...CARIBBEAN APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY. HURRICANE WARNING TONIGHT INTO TUE. TROPICAL STORM WARNING TUE NIGHT. .AMZ021...CARIBBEAN FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W... HURRICANE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM WARNING TUE. .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ117...BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAY SAL BANK... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TUE. HURRICANE WARNING TUE NIGHT INTO WED. .AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TUE NIGHT INTO WED. .AMZ123...ATLANTIC S OF 22N W OF 70W INCLUDING APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT. HURRICANE WARNING TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM WARNING WED. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.