000 AGXX40 KNHC 030742 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 342 AM EDT MON OCT 3 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER THE GULF WATERS AND EXTENDS FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. THE FRONT IS GENERATING SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. GENTLE TO MODERATE NE-E WINDS AND SEAS OF 2-4 FT ARE NOTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD TODAY WHILE DISSIPATING. A RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE GULF REGION DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN GULF LATE WED THROUGH LATE THU AS HURRICANE MATTHEW MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. ELSEWHERE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODEST SEAS WILL PERSIST. A NEW COLD FRONT MAY PUSH INTO THE NW GULF BY THE END OF THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE HURRICANE MATTHEW IS FINALLY MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH AT 4 KT... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MATTHEW WILL APPROACH JAMAICA AND SOUTHWESTERN HAITI TONIGHT. AT 03/06OO UTC...THE SMALL EYE OF MATTHEW WAS PASSING OVER NOAA BUOY 42058 LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE BUOY REPORTED SEAS OF 33 FT. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD STARTING LATE TODAY IN THE SOUTHERN APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE IN ADVANCE THE POWERFUL HURRICANE MATTHEW... REACHING 12 TO 15 FT SEAS BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...NE WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS WELL. WINDS AND SEAS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TONIGHT INTO TUE AS MATTHEW MOVES ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THIS WILL MAKE THE WINDWARD PASSAGE HIGHLY DANGEROUS FOR MARINE TRAFFIC THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MEANWHILE...A LARGE AREA OF SURROUNDING SWELL IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL DOMINATE THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MID WEEK AS WELL. SWELLS GENERATED BY MATTHEW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COASTS OF PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...THE ABC ISLANDS...VENEZUELA... COLOMBIA...EASTERN CUBA...AND THE CARIBBEAN COASTLINE OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. OUTSIDE OF MATTHEW...GENTLE TO MODERATE NE WINDS ARE SEEN OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE WINDS ARE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...PARTICULARLY E OF 70W. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MON AND TUE DUE TO PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND MATTHEW. MUCH MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS MATTHEW EXITS THE AREA. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 31N74W TO THE NW BAHAMAS. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ROUGHLY OVER THE SAME AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A RIDGE DOMINATES THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST REGION. UNDER THIS WEATHER PATTERN...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E FLOW IS NOTED S OF 27N AND GENTLE TO MODERATE FLOW IS SEEN N OF 27N. ALTIMETER DATA ALONG WITH BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SEAS OF 6 TO 7 FT OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS. AS HURRICANE MATTHEW MOVES NORTHWARD...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 22N W OF 70W TODAY...ACROSS THE SE AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND REGIONAL WATERS ON TUE...THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS SOUTH OF 27N BY TUE NIGHT. THE ADVANCE OF HURRICANE MATTHEW WILL RESULT IN VERY HIGH SEAS BUILDING IN THE NORTHERN APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY TONIGHT...AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS/CAICOS TUE THROUGH EARLY WED...SPREADING NORTH INTO CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH THU. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LARGELY DEPENDS ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF MATTHEW AS THE HURRICANE MOVES ACROSS THE SW N ATLC. THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF MATTHEW WILL LIKELY COVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS BY WED AND THU...BEGINNING TO EXIT THE AREA BY FRI. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ013...CARIBBEAN N OF 18N BETWEEN 76W AND 85W INCLUDING CAYMAN BASIN... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO TUE NIGHT. .AMZ015...CARIBBEAN APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY. HURRICANE WARNING TONIGHT INTO TUE. TROPICAL STORM WARNING TUE NIGHT. .AMZ021...CARIBBEAN FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W... HURRICANE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM WARNING TUE. .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... HURRICANE WARNING EARLY TODAY. TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ117...BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAY SAL BANK... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. .AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TUE NIGHT. .AMZ123...ATLANTIC S OF 22N W OF 70W INCLUDING APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT INTO TUE. HURRICANE WARNING TUE NIGHT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.