000 AGXX40 KNHC 021840 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 240 PM EDT SUN OCT 2 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER THE GULF WATERS AND EXTENDS FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO BROWNSVILLE. A LARGE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ACTIVE ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS AT THE BASE OF A REINFORCING UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CURRENTLY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACTIVE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THE FRONT WILL START TO DRIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT BUT START TO DISSIPATE AS WELL. A RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN GULF...ON THE EDGE OF HURRICANE MATTHEW EXPECTED TO MIGRATE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND TO THE EAST OF FLORIDA. ELSEWHERE LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODEST SEAS WILL PERSIST. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE HURRICANE MATTHEW IS STARTING TO MAKE ITS LONG EXPECTED NORTHWARD TURN TOWARD THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD STARTING LATE TODAY IN THE SOUTHERN APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE IN ADVANCE THE POWERFUL HURRICANE...REACHING 12 TO 15 FT SEAS BY TONIGHT. MEANWHILE NE WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS WELL. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD MON AND REACH 30 TO 35 FT BY MON NIGHT. THE HIGH SEAS...STRONG WINDS...AND LIMITED MANEUVERABILITY WILL MAKE THE WINDWARD PASSAGE HIGHLY DANGEROUS FOR MARINE TRAFFIC THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MEANWHILE A LARGE AREA OF SURROUNDING SWELL IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL DOMINATE THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MID WEEK AS WELL. SWELLS GENERATED BY MATTHEW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COASTS OF PUERTO RICO, HISPANIOLA, JAMAICA, ARUBA, BONAIRE, CURACAO, VENEZUELA, COLOMBIA, EASTERN CUBA, AND THE CARIBBEAN COASTLINE OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. OUTSIDE OF MATTHEW...GENTLE TO MODERATE NE WINDS ARE SEEN OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE WINDS ARE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...PARTICULARLY E OF 70W. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MON AND TUE DUE TO PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND MATTHEW. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE FAR NW CORNER AND WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY TUE. OTHERWISE A RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY FLOW S OF 27N AND GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE FLOW N OF 27N. ALTIMETER DATA ALONG WITH BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS. AS HURRICANE WARNING MATTHEW MOVES NORTHWARD...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 22N W OF 70W THROUGH MON... ACROSS THE SE AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND REGIONAL WATERS ON TUE...THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS SOUTH OF 27N BY TUE NIGHT. THE ADVANCE OF HURRICANE MATTHEW WILL RESULT IN VERY HIGH SEAS BUILDING IN THE NORTHERN APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY MON NIGHT...AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS/CAICOS TUE THROUGH EARLY WED...SPREADING NORTH INTO CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH THU. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LARGELY DEPENDS ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF MATTHEW AS THE HURRICANE WARNING MOVES ACROSS THE SW N ATLC. THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF MATTHEW WILL LIKELY COVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS BY WED AND THU. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ013...CARIBBEAN N OF 18N BETWEEN 76W AND 85W INCLUDING CAYMAN BASIN... TROPICAL STORM WARNING MON INTO TUE. .AMZ015...CARIBBEAN APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT INTO MON. HURRICANE WARNING MON NIGHT INTO TUE. .AMZ021...CARIBBEAN FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY. HURRICANE WARNING TONIGHT INTO MON NIGHT. .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... HURRICANE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ117...BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAY SAL BANK... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TUE. .AMZ123...ATLANTIC S OF 22N W OF 70W INCLUDING APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE... TROPICAL STORM WARNING MON NIGHT. HURRICANE WARNING TUE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.