000 AGXX40 KNHC 020729 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 329 AM EDT SUN OCT 2 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER THE GULF WATERS AND EXTENDS FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO THE CENTRAL GULF AT 25N90W TO NEAR VERACRUZ MEXICO. SCATTEROMETER AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE N TO NE WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS OF 2-4 FT BASED ON AN ALTIMETER PASS AND BUOYS OBSERVATIONS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF TODAY AND WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT INTO MON WHILE LIFTING NORTHWARD. THEN...A RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE GULF REGION DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS AND MODEST SEAS. HURRICANE MATTHEW IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. WINDS MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY AROUND THE OUTER PERIPHERY IN THE EASTERN GULF BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE HURRICANE MATTHEW HAS CHANGED LITTLE...AND THE WINDS ARE STILL ESTIMATED AT 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. MATTHEW IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 6 KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MATTHEW WILL APPROACH SOUTHWESTERN HAITI AND JAMAICA ON MONDAY. THE HURRICANE SHOULD EXPERIENCE SOME WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT MATTHEW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A POWERFUL HURRICANE AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WINDWARD PASSAGE IN ABOUT 48 HOUR OR SO. THE MAIN AREA OF SEAS WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 30 FT MOVING TOWARD THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ON TUE. A LARGE AREA OF SURROUNDING SWELL IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL DOMINATE THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MID WEEK AS WELL. SWELLS GENERATED BY MATTHEW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COASTS OF PUERTO RICO, HISPANIOLA, JAMAICA, ARUBA, BONAIRE, CURACAO, VENEZUELA, COLOMBIA, EASTERN CUBA, AND THE CARIBBEAN COASTLINE OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. OUTSIDE OF MATTHEW...GENTLE TO MODERATE NE WINDS ARE SEEN OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE WINDS ARE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...PARTICULARLY E OF 70W. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MON AND TUE DUE TO PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND MATTHEW. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE FAR NW CORNER AND WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TODAY. OTHERWISE A RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY FLOW S OF 27N AND GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE FLOW N OF 27N. ALTIMETER DATA ALONG WITH BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS. AS HURRICANE MATTHEW MOVES NORTHWARD...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 22N W OF 70W THROUGH MON... ACROSS THE SE AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND REGIONAL WATERS ON TUE... THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS SOUTH OF 27N BY TUE NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LARGELY DEPENDS ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF MATTHEW AS THE HURRICANE MOVES ACROSS THE SW N ATLC. THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF MATTHEW WILL LIKELY COVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS BY WED AND THU. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ013...CARIBBEAN N OF 18N BETWEEN 76W AND 85W INCLUDING CAYMAN BASIN... TROPICAL STORM WARNING MON INTO MON NIGHT. .AMZ015...CARIBBEAN APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT. HURRICANE WARNING MON INTO MON NIGHT. .AMZ021...CARIBBEAN FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY. HURRICANE WARNING TODAY INTO MON. TROPICAL STORM WARNING MON NIGHT. .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... HURRICANE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ123...ATLANTIC S OF 22N W OF 70W INCLUDING APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE... TROPICAL STORM WARNING MON NIGHT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.