000 AGXX40 KNHC 011831 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 231 PM EDT SAT OCT 1 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT REACHES FROM TAMPA FLORIDA TO JUST SOUTH OF TAMPICO MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE LOOP CURRENT AT 26N89W. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO ACTIVE ALONG THE VERACRUZ COAST AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. OTHERWISE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND 1 TO 3 FT SEAS. EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE EASTERN GULF BY TUE ON THE FAR EDGE OF HURRICANE MATTHEW...WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND ACROSS THE BAHAMAS THROUGH MID WEEK. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE HURRICANE MATTHEW REMAINS CENTERED AROUND 100 NM OFF THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA. IT HAS WEAKENED SINCE PEAKING AS A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE LAST NIGHT. IT IS FORECAST TO MAKE A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH AND MOVE TOWARD EASTERN CUBA BY TUE. THE MAIN AREA OF SEAS WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 30 FT MOVING TOWARD THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH MID WEEK. A LARGE AREA OF SURROUNDING SWELL IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL DOMINATE THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MID WEEK AS WELL. THE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COASTS OF PUERTO RICO, HISPANIOLA, JAMAICA, ARUBA, BONAIRE, CURACAO, VENEZUELA, AND COLOMBIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. OUTSIDE OF MATTHEW...GENTLE TO MODERATE NE WINDS ARE SEEN OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE WINDS ARE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN PARTICULARLY E OF 70W. MAINLY FRESH NE WINDS ARE SEEN IN THE LEE OF EASTERN CUBA. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N79W TO 29N81W WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT...TRAINING FROM CENTRAL CUBA THROUGH THE NW BAHAMAS TO OFF THE CAROLINAS. OTHERWISE A RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION SUPPORTING MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW. 5 TO 7 FT SEAS PERSIST OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS AS HURRICANE MATTHEW MOVES NORTHWARD...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 22N W OF 70W TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON...THEN ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND REGIONAL WATERS MON THROUGH TUE THEN OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LARGELY DEPENDS ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF MATTHEW AS THE HURRICANE WARNING MOVES ACROSS THE SW N ATLC. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ013...CARIBBEAN N OF 18N BETWEEN 76W AND 85W INCLUDING CAYMAN BASIN... TROPICAL STORM WARNING SUN NIGHT. HURRICANE WARNING MON. .AMZ015...CARIBBEAN APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE... TROPICAL STORM WARNING SUN NIGHT. HURRICANE WARNING MON. .AMZ021...CARIBBEAN FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HURRICANE WARNING SUN INTO MON. .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... HURRICANE WARNING TODAY INTO SUN. TROPICAL STORM WARNING SUN NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.