000
AGXX40 KNHC 241740
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
140 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK SUPPORTING LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND
SEAS 2 FT OR LESS OVER THE EASTERN GULF...AND MAINLY MODERATE
EASTERLY WINDS IN THE WESTERN GULF WITH 2-4 FT SEAS. MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT REACHING THE NW GULF LATE MON
THEN STALLING AND DISSIPATING IN THE N GULF THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE
THROUGH TUE...THEN LOW TO MEDIUM WED AND THU.

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SW N ATLC IN THE WAKE OF T.S.
KARL WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE S CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AND GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ELSEWHERE THROUGH TUE. A
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 55W WILL CROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES SUN AND
MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH AN ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. A SECOND WAVE IN THE EASTERN ATLC ALONG 27W
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND INTENSIFY AS
IT NEARS THE WINDWARDS AND MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A STRONG TROPICAL LOW...BUT VARY
GREATLY IN INTENSITY OF THE LOW AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE BASIN.
FOR THIS REASON...HAVE INTRODUCED A STRONG WAVE IN THE FORECAST
GRIDS WITH FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS IN THE N QUADRANT OF A
LOW MOVING IN TANDEM WITH THE WAVE...BUT HAVE AVOIDED USING THE
GFS SOLUTION WHICH DEVELOPS A STRONG TROPICAL CYCLONE...IN FAVOR
OF THE MORE CONSERVATIVE EC SOLUTION. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE
WILL CROSS 55W TUE NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
WED THEN MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT AND THU. 

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TROPICAL STORM KARL IS NE OF BERMUDA AND ACCELERATING AWAY FROM
THE AREA. A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEST OF KARL WILL SAG S OF
30N MON...BECOME STATIONARY TUE THEN DRIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT WED CONNECTED TO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING OFF THE
SE COAST OF THE U.S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THIS LOW WILL
STRENGTHEN NE WINDS IN THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA THU. ELSEWHERE
EXPECT LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND FAIRLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID-WEEK.
  
.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.