000 AGXX40 KNHC 240611 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 211 AM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK SUPPORTING LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS 2 FT OR LESS OVER THE EASTERN GULF...AND MAINLY MODERATE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT OVER THE WESTERN GULF. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WILL MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OVERNIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY FRESH EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS EACH NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT THAT AN EARLY SEASON COLD FRONT MAY REACH THE NORTHWESTERN GULF BY TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY BE WEAKENING AS IT NEARS THE GULF COAST AT THAT TIME. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE...THEN LOW AFTERWARDS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLANTIC WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 52W WILL CROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FORECAST WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES SUNDAY...AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MONDAY. THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC REACHES OUR TROPICAL ATLANTIC FORECAST WATERS ALONG 55W. THE MAJORITY OF GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A TROPICAL LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS WAVE AT SOME POINT IN TIME AS THE WAVE CROSSES FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO THE CARIBBEAN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS FEATURE BY SHOWING AN INCREASE IN WINDS TO 30 KT AND SEAS TO 10 FT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW ALONG THE WAVE AXIS AS IT CROSSES OUR ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SINCE MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE DEVELOPMENT...AND A COUPLE MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW NO DEVELOPMENT AT ALL...THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL OF THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. TROPICAL STORM KARL WILL AFFECT THE FAR NORTHEAST WATERS OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING AS IT INTENSIFIES AND MOVES NORTHWARD EAST OF 70W. KARL IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NE AWAY FROM THE AREA LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED E OF 68W IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF ZONE AMZ115 THROUGH THIS MORNING. LARGE SWELL FROM KARL WILL SUBSIDE ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 3 TO 4 FT SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY...THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS 30N AND BRING MODERATE TO FRESH EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS TO THE NORTHERN WATERS. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.