000
AGXX40 KNHC 231755
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
155 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND SUPPORT LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
OVER THE E GULF AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS IN THE W GULF WITH
SEAS GENERALLY 1-3 FT. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SOMEWHAT
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MODELS DIVERGE ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A
FRONT REACHING THE NW GULF MON NIGHT OR TUE. THE TREND FOR GFS AND
OTHER GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH OR
NO FRONT AT ALL.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH
TUE...THEN LOW AFTERWARDS.

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DISRUPTED DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF TROPICAL STORM KARL...RESULTING IN GENTLE TO MODERATE
TRADES OVER THE CARIBBEAN. AS KARL ACCELERATES OUT OF THE TROPICS 
TONIGHT AND SAT...THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND ALLOW WINDS TO
INCREASE ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL REACH THE
LESSER ANTILLES BY SAT NIGHT AND INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY IN THE ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 17W
MOVING OFF THE AFRICAN COAST WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE ATLANTIC AND
CROSS 55W AROUND TUE AND MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN BY WED NIGHT.
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THIS WAVE MAY ORGANIZE INTO A TROPICAL LOW
BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES. HOWEVER...THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW IS QUESTIONABLE BASED ON AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...AND LOWER
CONFIDENCE IS REFLECTED IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST GRIDS.
 
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TROPICAL STORM KARL WILL AFFECT THE FAR NE WATERS OF THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY SAT AS IT INTENSIFIES AND MOVES NORTHWARD EAST OF
70W...THEN ACCELERATE NE AWAY FROM THE AREA SAT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED E OF 68W IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF ZONE
AMZ115 THROUGH EARLY SAT. LARGE SWELL FROM KARL WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE E OF 75W BY SAT.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND WITH
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 3-4 FT SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH MON. BY
MON NIGHT...THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS 30N AND BRING
MODERATE TO FRESH EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS TO NORTHERN WATERS.
  
.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W...
 TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.