000 AGXX40 KNHC 221728 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 128 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON...THEN MEDIUM. A SURFACE TROUGH RIGHT ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WILL MOVE INLAND THROUGH THE EVENING AS HIGH PRES RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE NE. THE TAIL END OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CLIP THE FAR NE COASTAL WATERS AND NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH TONIGHT. A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE NE GULF TO THE CENTRAL GULF WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS MAINLY THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH TONIGHT. MARINE CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY QUITE BENIGN WITH MAINLY GENTLE EASTERLY FLOW...EXCEPT IN THE NW GULF WHERE MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE LOCALLY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. SEAS ARE MAINLY 2 FT OR LESS ACROSS THE WATERS. RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE BASIN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH WINDS INCREASING SLIGHTLY IN THE WESTERN GULF AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SLIGHTLY. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING THE FIRST COLD FRONT OF THE SEASON INTO THE WESTERN GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT POSSIBLE GALES WHICH WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN THAT ADEQUATE MIXING IS LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE. CURRENTLY THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL IN THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH MID-WEEK. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N85W TO ACROSS CENTRAL HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA WILL EXIT THE BASIN THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS NOSING INTO THE REGION ACROSS THE NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC AND INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN TROPICAL CYCLONES KARL AND LISA. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE DUE TO KARL WITH MAINLY MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE WATERS...EXCEPT LOCALLY FRESH IN THE S CENTRAL WATERS. SEAS ARE MAINLY 2-4 FT...EXCEPT LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE S CENTRAL WATERS. ATLC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD N OF THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF KARL...ALLOWING FOR TRADES TO INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG PULSING TRADES IN THE S CENTRAL WATERS...AS WELL AS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS SAT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THESE INCREASING WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS TO UP TO 9-11 FT N OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE AREA TUE MORNING...WITH ACCOMPANYING WEATHER POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CLIPPING THE FAR NW WATERS AND WILL STALL OUT THROUGH TONIGHT. A PESKY SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS ZONE AMZ111. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS NOSING IN FROM JUST W OF BERMUDA...S-SW TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AHEAD OF TROPICAL CYCLONE KARL. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE OBSERVED W OF 70W...ALONG WITH 2-4 FT SEAS. KARL...CURRENTLY A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS IMPACTING THE WATERS E OF 70W. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS ALREADY SPREADING INTO ZONES AMZ115 AND AMZ121..WHILE A TRAILING TROUGH OR BAND REMAINS ALONG 60W IN ZONE AMZ127. A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS NICELY MEASURED SEAS JUST TO THE W OF KARL WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6-9 FT. KARL IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO NEAR 26.3N 63.7W THIS EVENING WHILE STRENGTHENING BACK TO A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM...THEN TO 28.3N 64.8W BY EARLY FRI MORNING...THEN WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE AS IT RECURVES WHILE MOVING N OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE STILL FORECAST TO CLIP THE EASTERN PORTION OF ZONE AMZ115...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA BY FRI EVENING...HOWEVER SWELLS ARE ALREADY PROPAGATING ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR 28N75W SAT MORNING WITH AN E TO W RIDGE SETTING UP ALONG IT BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FRONT OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS WILL FINALLY PROGRESS SLOWLY TO THE E SAT THROUGH SUN...MAINLY N OF 30N...AS THE RIDGING HOLDS STRONG. THE FRONT...OR REMNANTS THERE OF IN THE FORM OF A SHEARLINE...MAY MANAGE TO SINK S TO ALONG 27N BY TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE N OF IT BUILDS. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.