000 AGXX40 KNHC 221014 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 614 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH HAS CONTINUED TO DRIFT WEST ACROSS THE NW GULF OVERNIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH NOW INLAND FROM S TEXAS TO NORTHERN MEXICO WHILE THE SFC-LLVL REFLECTION STILL REMAINS OVER WATER. SOMEWHAT ACTIVE WEATHER HAS PERSISTED OVERNIGHT WITH SMALL CLUSTERS OF TSTMS NEAR TROUGH. TSTM WINDS HAVE PRODUCE STEADY SE WINDS AND KICKED UP SEAS TO 6 FT AT BUOY 42019 WHILE SEAS LOOKED TO BE 3-5 FT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. TROUGH SHOULD FINALLY MOVE INLAND TODAY WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT BY AFTERNOON. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE SUPPORTING TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...LLVL MOISTURE APPEARS TO HAVE ADVECTED NW ACROSS THE YUCATAN AND S CENTRAL PORTIONS PAST 24 HOURS AND IS YIELDING SCATTERED POPCORN TSTMS ACROSS S AND SW PORTIONS. THIS WEATHER WILL DIMINISH BUT MOISTURE TO SHIFT NW AND ACROSS W AND NW PORTIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRES AT THE SFC IS CENTERED OFFSHORE OF FL PANHANDLE AND EXPECTED TO MEANDER IN A VERY NARROW RIDGE BETWEEN THERE AND CHANDELEUR ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE WEAKENING FURTHER AND RELOCATED IN BIG BEND AREA. AFTER CURRENT SFC TROUGH SHIFTS WELL INLAND...WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE WESTERN GULF FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SLIGHTLY. GLOBAL MODELS MINUS ECMWF FORECASTING EARLY SEASON COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO NW AND WRN GULF MON-TUE AND ALLOW STRONG NLY WINDS TO SPILL DOWN MEXICAN COAST. LETS SEE HOW ECMWF ADJUSTS NEXT FEW RUNS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE HAS SHIFTED EVER SO SLIGHTLY SE TO ALONG 33N. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PERSIST ACROSS N OF 16N WHILE MODERATE TRADES ARE FOUND S OF 16N...AND PULSED TO 15-20 KT ACROSS S CENTRAL PORTIONS OVERNIGHT. SEAS GENERALLY 5 FT OR LESS. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVING W ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIB PAST 36 HR AND BECOME CLEARLY EVIDENT ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA OVERNIGHT AS IT INTERACTS WITH WEAKENED MID-UPPER TROUGH AND HAS FLARED UP NICELY WITH CONVECTION...AND SHOULD SHIFT W INTO THE EPAC NEXT 24 HOURS. ASSOCIATED WEATHER TO IMPACT SW PORTIONS AND GULF OF HONDURAS TODAY. UPPER LOW OVER W CUBA AND NW PORTIONS WILL ALSO TRIGGER CONVECTION ACROSS THAT AREA TODAY. A WEAK TROUGH TRAILS INTO THE NE CARIB FROM KARL WHILE UPPER LOW TO THE W OF KARL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN BUT WILL MAINTAIN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND PR TODAY. LIGHT WIND WILL YIELD SMOOTH SEAS ACROSS THE NE CARIB AND REMAIN DOMINATED BY MODEST NE SWELL FROM KARL. ATLC BUOYS HAVE INCREASED A COUPLE OF FEET IN PAST 12 HOURS AND EXPECTED TO BLEED INTO NE CARIB WATERS TODAY. KARL WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE NE CARIB REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AND ALLOW FOR MILD SE FLOW TO BUILD ACROSS THE E AND NE CARIB. THIS A RESULT OF WEAK NOSING OF CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE BETWEEN KARL AND LISA...AND WILL INCREASE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE EAST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS BY SAT FOR MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH LINGERING FROM NW OF BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS CONTINUES TO DRIFT VERY SLIGHTLY NW AND WEAKEN FURTHER BUT IS NOW MASKED AT LLVL BY WEAK RIDGING INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO THE W OF KARL. THE REMNANTS OF JULIA CONTINUE ACROSS COASTAL S CAROLINA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SSW THROUGH NE AND CENTRAL FLORIDA AND CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH UPPER TROUGH ALONG SE U.S. COASTS FOR SPOTTY CONVECTION. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF JULIA MOVE LITTLE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE FINALLY FILLING AND SHIFTING OUT TO NE. MEANWHILE...T.D. KARL APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY IMPROVING ORGANIZATION AS THE CENTER TRIES TO PULL UP INTO THE DEEP CONVECTIVE COMMA PATTERN. KARL EXPECTED TO BECOME A T.S. AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE NW...THEN BEGIN THE GRADUAL RECURVATURE PROCESS NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT BRUSHES THE FAR NE ZONES...PRIMARILY THE NE CORNER OF AMZ115. THIS BASED ON LATEST NHC FORECAST WHICH IS OF MODERATE CONFIDENCE. E TO SE SWELL FROM KARL ALREADY MOVING THROUGH AREA ATLC WATERS AND HAS REACHED THE FLORIDA COASTLINES AT LESS THAN 1 FT PER BUOY OBS OVERNIGHT. SWELL WILL BUILD AND FORECAST TO PEAK LATE FRI THROUGH SAT. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING FRI. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.