000 AGXX40 KNHC 211836 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 236 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES DRIFTING WEST FROM THE NW GULF WATERS INTO THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS. THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WEST OF 92W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE WESTERN GULF BY FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE PREVAILS ALONG 34N. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PERSIST ACROSS THE BASIN EAST OF 70W WITH SEAS GENERALLY 5 FT OR LESS...EXCEPT FOR FRESH NE TO E WINDS ACROSS S CENTRAL PORTIONS AND ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF COLOMBIA...WHERE SEAS REMAIN LESS THAN 8 FT. A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES MOVING WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL-WEST CARIB. THIS FEATURE IS BECOMING DIFFICULT TO FOLLOW AS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE HAS LARGELY SHIFTED WNW ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND INTO E CUBA. EXPECT FOR THIS WAVE TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WEATHER CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH T.D. KARL EXTEND NORTH OF 17N WHILE A NE SWELL IS MOVING THROUGH NE CARIB. KARL WILL CONTINUE BRINGING WEATHER TO THE AREA BEFORE IT MAKES A NW TURN AND BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF THE NE CARIB REGION BY FRIDAY. ONCE KARL BEGINS THIS NW MOTION...LITTLE SWELL ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN. STRONG TRADES WILL RETURN TO THE S CENTRAL PORTIONS BY THIS WEEKEND WITH NOCTURNAL PEAKS AS USUAL AS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE NOSES INTO NE CARIB BETWEEN KARL AND LISA. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NW OF BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS. THIS FEATURE HAS DRIFTED NW IN THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH A WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERING BELOW. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING NW OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. THE REMNANTS OF JULIA CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING SSW REACHING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTERACTING WITH ABOVE DESCRIBED UPPER TROUGH GENERATING CONVECTION WEST OF 74W. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF JULIA WILL DRIFT S DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS ENHANCING CONVECTION. MEANWHILE...T.D. KARL CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE AT IT MOVED WESTWARD PAST 18-24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN WNW TODAY AND THEN MORE NW TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AN EASTERLY SWELL AHEAD OF KARLS NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WIND FIELD HAS MOVED INTO E WATERS PAST 24 HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE W TO 80W AND FLORIDA COASTS TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO FADE. THE LAST NHC FORECAST MOVES KARL ACROSS E PORTIONS OF AMZ121 AND 115 FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS IT RECURVES AND INTENSIFIES TO A STRONG TROPICAL STORM. A WEAK PRES PATTERN TO THE W AND SW OF KARL WILL PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SMOOTH SEAS...DOMINATED BY THE SWELL FROM THE SYSTEM. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING THU NIGHT INTO FRI. .AMZ121...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING THU NIGHT INTO FRI. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER RIVERA. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.