000 AGXX40 KNHC 161701 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 101 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENINGS. EXPECT GENTLE TO MODERATE NE-E WINDS TO DEVELOP EACH DAY ALONG THE N AND NW COASTS OF THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA BEGINNING IN THE LATE AFTERNOONS...AND ENDING BEFORE MIDNIGHT EACH NIGHT AS THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVES W-NW ACROSS THE SW GULF ACCOMPANIED BY 2-3 FT SEAS. THE TROUGH WILL LOSE IDENTITY NEAR 22N94W BY LATE EACH MORNING. THIS MORNINGS TROUGH WAS CONVECTIVE AS IT MOVED UNDER THE DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 23N93W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS E TO W ACROSS THE N AND NORTHWESTERN COASTAL PLAINS...ACCOMPANIED BY SCT TS NEAR 28N94W WHICH WILL BE DEPICTED IN THE INITIAL WEATHER GRIDS. ONLY SLIGHT CYCLONIC TURNING NOTED ATTM. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE FURTHER INLAND ON SAT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. STRONG NE WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA BRIEFLY TONIGHT AND ON SUN NIGHT...WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT EVENT EXPECTED ON SAT NIGHT WHEN ASSOCIATED SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO ABOUT 9 FT NEAR 12N76W. A NE TO SW ORIENTATED TROUGH...ACCOMPANIED BY CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION...EXTENDS ACROSS THE LEEWARDS AND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT W ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND SAT AND GRADUALLY LOOSE IDENTITY S OF PUERTO RICO ON SUN. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 52W WILL PASS THROUGH THE TROPICAL WATERS E OF THE WINDWARDS ON SAT...AND ENTER THE SE CARIBBEAN ON SUN. MOSTLY A MODERATE NE-E-SE WIND SHIFT EXPECTED WITH THE WAVE PASSAGE. NE TO E SWELL FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE KARL WILL REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS NEAR 19N55W LATE MON...WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS SWEEPING NW ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 17N E OF 57W ON TUE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. LOW CONFIDENCE. TS JULIA CONTINUES NEAR 31.1N 75.6W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO CENTRAL FL. TS WINDS ARE ONLY OVER NE QUADRANT...WITH STRONG TO NEAR GALE CYCLONIC WINDS OVER S SEMICIRCLE OF JULIA...ROUGHLY ACROSS FORECAST WATERS N OF 30N. STRONG N WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT N OF 30N W OF CENTER TO ALONG 80W WITH SEAS TO 10 FT. SWELL FROM TS KARL WILL REACH NEAR 22N55W ON MON...WITH ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS PASSING THROUGH THE TROPICAL WATERS E OF 62W LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...THEN KARL WILL MOVE NW THROUGH THE DISCUSSION WATERS BETWEEN 55W AND 65W ON TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...AND PASSING THROUGH THE WATERS S OF BERMUDA ON FRI. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AMZ127 ON TUE AND TUE NIGHT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.