000 AGXX40 KNHC 130738 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 338 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK HIGH PRES PATTERN IS OVER THE AREA. WEAK LOW PRES OF 1012 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 24N89W...WITH A TROUGH NW TO NEAR 26N93W. THE WEAK GRADIENT OVER THE AREA SUPPORTS GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS...EXCEPT FOR GENTLE TO MODERATE NE-E WINDS IN THE ERN PORTION OF THE SW GULF...ZONE GMZ025. CURRENT BUOYS AND RECENT ALTIMETER DATA INDICATE SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 1-3 FT...EXCEPT FOR A POCKET OF HIGHER SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 3-5 FT IS OBSERVED N OF 24N BETWEEN 85W AND 94W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE SSW TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH ACTING ON MOISTURE WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW CONTINUES TO RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS TO PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE ERN GULF...AND OVER THE ERN PORTION OF THE N CNTRL GULF. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO AT LEAST WED. THE WEAK 1012 MB LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT OR ON WED...WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH PRESENTLY CONNECTED TO IT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE WRN GULF. THE 3-4 FT SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SHRINK IN COVERAGE THROUGH WED WHILE LOWERING TO 2-3 FT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE FLOW COVERING MUCH OF THE BASIN W OF 80W ALONG AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THAT PART OF THE BASIN LEFT BEHIND A TRPCL WAVE THAT MOVED INLAND CNTRL AMERICA ON MON. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS MAINLY CONCENTRATED W OF 80W AND ALSO S OF 13N W OF COLOMBIA WHERE THE ERN PART OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IS LOCATED. ALTIMETER DATA FROM MON EVENING HIGHLIGHTED SEAS OF 4-6 FT IN THE SW PORTION OF THE SEA. SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 3-5 FT ARE ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 66W-82W. LOWER SEAS OF 2-3 FT ARE W OF 82W AND E OF 66W. A RATHER RELAXED PRES GRADIENT SUPPORTS GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR S CNTRL PORTION WHERE MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E WINDS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS THAT NE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE FAR NE AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE TRPCL N ATLC WITH COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS IN THE RANGE OF 6-9 FT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS TROPICAL STORM IAN LOCATED OVER THE CNTRL ATLC CONTINUES TO DISTANCE ITSELF FROM THE TRPCL N ATLC THROUGH WED NIGHT. COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS OUTSIDE THE AFFECTED SWELL AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 4-6 FT DURING THE PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE... EXCEPT AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FAR E AND SE PORTIONS THROUGH WED. THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH THE BAHAMAS THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS REACHED A PSN AS OF 06Z ALONG THE FL E COAST WITH A WEAK 1012 MB LOW ON THE TROUGH NEAR 27N80W. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH NWS DOPPLER RADAR ANIMATION SHOW CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED TSTMS JUST OFFSHORE THE S FL COAST FROM 24N TO 27N AND E TO 77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ELSEWHERE W OF 76W. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. THE TROUGH AND LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND FL THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS STRONG HIGHER PRES STAYS N OF THE FORECAST WATERS. GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRESH E-SE WINDS FROM THE SE BAHAMAS TO HISPANIOLA AND NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. OUTSIDE SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY...SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE E AND NE OF THE BAHAMAS...AND 1-2 FT SW OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE PERIOD. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.