000 AGXX40 KNHC 120756 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 355 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE IS ALONG THE FAR NRN WATERS. WEAK LOW PRES OF 1014 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 24N84W...WHILE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FL PANHANDLE SW TO NEAR 26N88.5W. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE TROUGH AND LOW SUPPORTS GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS E OF 88W. GENTLE TO MODERATE NE-E WINDS ARE W OF 88W. CURRENT BUOYS AND RECENT ALTIMETER DATA INDICATE SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 1-3 FT...EXCEPT FOR A POCKET OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 3-4 FT FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 85W AND 89W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM S CNTRL LOUISIANA SW TO THE SW GULF. INSTABILITY TO THE SE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IN COMBINATION WITH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW CONTINUES TO RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS TO EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE ERN GULF...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE N CNTRL GULF. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO AT LEAST WED. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS FORECAST TO LIFT N OF THE AREA TODAY WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE WRN GULF THROUGH WHILE BECOMING DIFFUSE. THE 3-4 FT SEAS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER TO 2-3 FT TUE WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE FLOW COVERING MUCH OF THE BASIN W OF 80W. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE WRN CARIBBEAN. THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A TRPCL WAVE AXIS ALONG 86W S OF 20N MOVING W AT ABOUT 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND CNTRL AMERICA THIS MORNING. THE HEAVIEST AND MOST CONCENTRATED AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE E OF THE WAVE FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 80W-83W. SEAS OF 5-7 FT IN THE S CNTRL PORTION OF THE SEA ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY ON MON. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN... GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES ARE EVIDENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR S CNTRL PORTION WHERE STRONGER TRADES IN THE FRESH TO STRONG CATEGORY ARE OBSERVED IN THE 0238Z ASCAT PASS. SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 3-4 FT ARE ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 66W-82W. LOWER SEAS OF 2-3 FT ARE W OF 82W AND E OF 66W. WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS THAT NE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE FAR NE AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE TRPCL N ATLC WITH COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS IN THE RANGE OF 6-9 FT THROUGH EARLY TUE AS A BROAD LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING NW PRESENTLY WELL TO THE E OF THE FORECAST WATERS PASSES JUST TO THE NE OF THE THOSE ZONES. THE FORECAST FOR THE AFFECTED WATERS OF THESE ZONE WILL RELY HIGHLY ON THE FUTURE PROGRESS OF THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM. SEAS OUTSIDE THE AFFECTED SWELL AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 4-6 FT DURING THE PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE... EXCEPT AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FAR E AND SE PORTIONS THROUGH WED. THE 0240Z ASCAT NICELY DEPICTED A TROUGH FROM 26N74W TO CNTRL CUBA. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLUSTER OF SCATTERED TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE TROUGH. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE BASIN FROM 32N75W TO THE CNTRL BAHAMAS AND TO CNTRL CUBA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS...AND ALSO OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WRN PART OF THE BASIN S OF BETWEEN 73W-79W. GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N76W TO NEAR 28N79W. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH FROM 26N74W TO CNTRL CUBA WILL MOVE NW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF ZONE AMZ117...AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF ZONE AMZ111 THROUGH EARLY TUE. SCATTERED SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH. A NARROW SWATH OF E-SE 15-20 KT WINDS...AS INDICATED BY THE 0240Z ASCAT PASS...WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS TROUGH. ELSEWHERE... WEAK HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH THE ASSOCIATED GRADIENT KEEPING GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRESH E TO SE WINDS FROM THE SE BAHAMAS TO HISPANIOLA AND NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.