000 AGXX40 KNHC 111803 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 203 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL MERGE OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WITH A LARGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THIS RIDGING WILL THEN REMAIN NORTH OF THE GULF THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A SURFACE TROUGH AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE GULF BASIN TOWARD TEXAS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH LOCALLY FRESH WINDS...SEAS 3 TO 4 FT...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A SURFACE TROUGH...THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE...IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND OVER MEXICO TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO CLOSE OFF EARLY THIS WEEK AND MEANDER OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF...ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS TROUGH...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. ELSEWHERE...THE RIDGING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL PROVIDE MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE GULF WITH 1 TO 3 FT SEAS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD AND EXIT THE BASIN ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. UNTIL THAT TIME...AN ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY N OF 19N AND S OF 15N WITHIN A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLANTIC RIDGING AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES MAINLY SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 68W AND 73W THROUGH TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL THEN WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO TROUGHING PASSING NORTH OF THE BASIN. THEREAFTER...MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC ZONES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT PASSES NORTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC ZONES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SWELL THAT IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE TO OUR FORECAST ZONES PRIMARILY N OF 14N AND E OF 60W BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN SPREADING NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC ZONES THROUGH TUESDAY. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS TO NEAR 26N71W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THE NEXT FEW DAYS...CROSSING THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN CENTRAL FLORIDA MONDAY NIGHT. FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH. SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT WILL OCCUR EAST OF THE BAHAMAS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRESH WINDS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE WEATHER ELSEWHERE OVER THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN. BROAD LOW PRESSURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND TRACK NORTHWEST THEN NORTH...TO THE EAST OF OUR ZONES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WILL BRING A SWELL EVENT TO OUR AREA THIS WEEK. THE SWELL WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS ZONE AMZ127 EAST OF 60W SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC FORECAST WATERS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.