000 AGXX40 KNHC 110758 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 358 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE REGION CONTINUES TO CONTROL THE WIND REGIME THROUGHOUT THE GULF WITH GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS...EXCEPT FOR MODERATE NE WINDS IN THE ERN PORTION OF ZONE GMZ021. THE WEAK LOW PRES OF THE PREVIOUS DAYS IS NOW NEAR 24N85W WITH A PRES OF 1013 MB. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW NNE TO JUST W OF TAMPA FL. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROUGH INTO EARLY ON MON. ANOTHER TROUGH IS OVER THE CNTRL GULF FROM NEAR 27N91W TO 23N90W. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES LIE TO THE SE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM LOUISIANA SW TO THE SW GULF. INSTABILITY TO THE SE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IN COMBINATION WITH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGHS IS ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS TO EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE ERN GULF...AND THE E PORTION OF THE CNTRL GULF. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO AT LEAST WED. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO LIFT N OF THE AREA MON WHILE THE TROUGH ALONG 27N91W TO 23N90W SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE WRN GULF THROUGH THU. SEAS WILL BE IN THE RANGE OF ABOUT 2-3 FT...EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS OF 3-5 FT IN THE SE GULF AND STRAITS OF FL. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS USED FOR NDFD GRIDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT AVERAGE CONFIDENCE NE AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE TRPCL N ATLC THROUGH THU NIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE FLOW COVERING MUCH OF THE BASIN W OF 80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NOTED IN THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN NEAR WRN CUBA. THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A TRPCL WAVE AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG 83W S OF 19N. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND CNTRL AMERICA EARLY ON MON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH MON NIGHT OR TUE. SEAS OF 5-7 FT IN THE S CNTRL PORTION OF THE SEA ARE FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY ON MON. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN...GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES ARE EVIDENT WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 3-4 FT W OF ABOUT 69W...AND 2-3 FT E OF 69W. WAVE GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENTLY SUGGESTING THAT NE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO INFILTRATE THE FAR NE AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE TRPCL N ATLC ZONES THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEAS GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 7 FT...THEN POSSIBLY HIGHER TO AROUND 9 FT IN THE FAR NE PORTION LATE MON INTO TUE AS A BROAD LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING NW PRESENTLY WELL TO THE E OF THE FORECAST WATERS PASSES JUST TO THE NE OF THE THESE ZONES. THE FORECAST FOR THE AFFECTED WATERS OF THESE ZONE WILL RELY HIGHLY ON THE FUTURE PROGRESS OF THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM. SEAS OUTSIDE THE AFFECTED SWELL AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 4-6 FT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON NIGHT...THEN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THU NIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 70W FROM 21N TO 24N. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLUSTER OF SCATTERED TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE TROUGH. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE BASIN FROM 32N76W TO THE CNTRL BAHAMAS AND TO ERN CUBA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE BAHAMAS AND TO OVER MUCH OF CUBA. GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N66W TO NEAR 26N70W. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE NW ACROSS THE REST OF ZONE AMZ125 THROUGH TONIGHT...ACROSS ZONE AMZ119 THROUGH TONIGHT...AND ACROSS ZONE AMZ117 LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT. THE SCATTERED SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS TROUGH. ELSEWHERE...WEAK HIGH PRES WITH AXIS NEAR OR ALONG 31N WILL MAINTAIN HOLD OF THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE AREA WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRESH E TO SE WINDS FROM THE SE BAHAMAS TO HISPANIOLA AND NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.