000 AGXX40 KNHC 101833 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 233 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK EAST TO WEST ORIENTED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL PERSIST THERE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BECOMING REINFORCED THROUGH MID WEEK BY ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDING SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF A DISSIPATING FRONT INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF BASIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SPIN WESTWARD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH FRESH SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AS WELL AS SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT IN NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LOW. DRY AIR IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE...A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THEIR FORECAST FOR THIS TROUGH...KEEPING IT NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF UNDER THE UPPER LOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY RESULT IN AN ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF WILL EXIT THE BASIN TONIGHT. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN MAY CLIP THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF TUESDAY. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ATLC N OF 15N E OF 60W. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD AND EXIT THE BASIN ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA BY MONDAY. UNTIL THAT TIME...AN ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY N OF 18N AND S OF 12N WITHIN A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLANTIC RIDGING AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES MAINLY SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 68W AND 72W THROUGH TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL THEN WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO TROUGHING PASSING NORTH OF THE BASIN. THEREAFTER...MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC ZONES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN UNCERTAIN PART OF THE UPCOMING FORECAST PERTAINS TO WHAT WILL EVENTUALLY HAPPEN WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH THE MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND TURNS IT NW THEN N...KEEPING IT NE OF OUR ZONES...THIS SYSTEM IS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME CONSOLIDATING. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR THIS SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY WHILE STAYING NE OF OUR AREA. THIS SCENARIO WILL PRODUCE LARGE SWELL THAT WOULD PROPAGATE TO OUR FORECAST ZONES PRIMARILY N OF 15N AND E OF 60W BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING UNTIL TUESDAY. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE INTENSIFICATION AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE...LOW E OF 60W. A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE FLORIDA COAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OVER THE STATE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ANOTHER TROUGH CURRENTLY NE OF THE BAHAMAS WILL DRIFT NORTH AND DISSIPATE THROUGH SUNDAY. BOTH OF THESE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LOW IN THE AREA TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NORTH TO 31N AND FROM FLORIDA EAST TO 70W. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TAKING THIS SYSTEM WEST TO NORTHWESTWARD...JUST NORTH OF THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS SUNDAY...THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON MONDAY. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT TRAVERSES OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM UNDER 20 KT AND SEAS UNDER 8 FT. THE UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO FUTURE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM KEEPS CONFIDENCE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AT MEDIUM. EAST OF 60W THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR A POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO PASS EAST OF THE ZONES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. SHOULD THIS FORECAST VERIFY...LARGE SWELL WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS ZONE AMZ127 EAST OF 60W SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. INCREASING SWELL WOULD ALSO REACH N OF 22N EAST OF 60W BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FUTURE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.