000 AGXX40 KNHC 100754 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 354 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A RATHER LIGHT GRADIENT THROUGHOUT... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR ERN PORTION OF THE GULF WHERE THE PRES IS A BIT TIGHTER E OF A WEAK 1012 MB LOW NEAR 24N82W. THIS GRADIENT IS BRINGING FRESH MODERATE E-SE WINDS AND SEAS TO AROUND 7 FT TO THE E OF THE LOW ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FL. THE LOW IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM IT NEWD TO OVER S CNTRL FL. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO REACH 24N84W TONIGHT...AND TO NEAR 24N85W SUN EVENING THEN WEAKEN TO A TROUGH INTO EARLY ON MON. ELSEWHERE....EXPECT GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 2-4 FT. THE NRN PORTION OF A TRPCL WAVE HAS MOVED OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE TO ALONG 92W S OF 23N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EARLIER NOTED ALONG AND E OF THE WAVE HAVE DIMINISHED FOR THE TIME BEING. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACTS ON WINDS AND SEAS BUT IS EXPECTED TO AGAIN INITIATE AN INCREASE OF LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS TO ZONE GMZ025 LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND IN ZONE GMZ023 SUN AND SUN NIGHT PRIMARILY TO THE S OF 20N. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN A GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS SUN THROUGH WED NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT AVERAGE CONFIDENCE NE AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE TRPCL N ATLC SUN THROUGH WED NIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE FLOW COVERING MUCH OF THE BASIN W OF 72W. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE RIDING AROUND THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE. ASSOCIATED ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS DEPICTED BY THE IMAGERY TO BE CONFINED OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE SEA WHERE RESULTANT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING. THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A TRPCL WAVE AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG 77W/78W S OF 20N. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE WRN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT ...AND MOVE INLAND LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY ON MON. THIS WAVE WILL HELP ADD TO THE ALREADY PRESENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN AND CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE SEA IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE BEGINNING TONIGHT AND INTO SUN AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME. RELATED SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 5-7 FT THROUGH SUN NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 4-6 FT ON MON. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN...GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 3-4 FT W OF ABOUT 69W ...AND 2-3 FT E OF 69W. OVER THE NRN TRPCL N ATLC WATERS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND INCREASING TSTMS ARE NOTED FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W DUE TO A WEAK 1014 MB LOW LOCATED NEAR 20N65W WITH A TROUGH N TO 22N...AND S TO JUST E OF PUERTO RICO. THE SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED TO PULL OFF TO THE N AND NW THROUGH SUN NIGHT. WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT NE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO INFILTRATE THE FAR NE AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE TRPCL N ATLC ZONES ON SUN WITH SEAS GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 7 FT...THEN POSSIBLY HIGHER TO 10 FT IN THE FAR NE PORTION LATE MON INTO TUE AS A LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING NW PASSES JUST TO THE NE OF THE THESE ZONES. THE FORECAST FOR THE AFFECTED WATERS OF THESE ZONE WILL RELY HIGHLY ON THE FUTURE PROGRESS OF THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM. SEAS OUTSIDE THE AFFECTED SWELL AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 4-6 FT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON NIGHT...THEN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED NIGHT. A WEAK 1014 MB LOW IS NEAR 20N65W WITH A TROUGH N TO 22N AND ANOTHER TROUGH FROM THE LOW TO JUST E OF PUERTO RICO. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE BASIN FROM 32N75W TO THE CNTRL BAHAMAS AND TO E CNTRL CUBA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE BAHAMAS AND TO OVER MUCH OF CUBA. GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N66W TO NEAR 26N70W. THE 1014 MB LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY THIS EVENING...HOWEVER THE TROUGH WILL MOVE NW ACROSS THE REST OF ZONE AMZ125 THROUGH TONIGHT...ACROSS ZONE AMZ119 SUN AND SUN NIGHT...AND ACROSS ZONE AMZ117 LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THE SCATTERED SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS TROUGH. ELSEWHERE...WEAK HIGH PRES WITH AXIS NEAR OR ALONG 31N WILL MAINTAIN HOLD OF THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE AREA WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRESH E TO SE WINDS FROM THE SE BAHAMAS TO HISPANIOLA AND NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.