000 AGXX40 KNHC 091855 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 255 PM EDT FRI SEP 9 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE S GULF. A WEAK EAST TO WEST ORIENTED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL PERSIST THERE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGING WILL SUPPORT MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN WITH SEAS GENERALLY BETWEEN 1 TO 3 FT. THERE ARE TWO FEATURES THAT MAY BRING A DEVIATION FROM THIS BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE GULF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FIRST IS A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AN AXIS CURRENTLY ALONG 86W EXTENDING INTO THE GULF TO NEAR 23N. THIS WAVE IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT WESTWARD WITH THE WAVE AS THE WAVE PROPAGATES OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT AND THEN THE SOUTHWEST GULF ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE OTHER FEATURE IS A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING FROM THE BAHAMAS TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS SYSTEM HAS HAD PERSISTENT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND MODELS FORECAST THIS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE AS THE LOW AND TROUGH MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF MONDAY. THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS AND SEAS TO BE HIGHER OVER THE SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH- CENTRAL GULF THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...IF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HOLD ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OR BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ATLC N OF 15N E OF 60W. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA THIS EVENING. A SURFACE TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 24N80W. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL CROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY TRADES WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS WAVE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN AND VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL MOVE WEST TO NORTHWESTWARD...WITH MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST INVOLVES A TROPICAL WAVE AND LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO STAY NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST ZONES. HOWEVER...LARGE SWELL THAT COULD BE GENERATED BY A INTENSIFYING SYSTEM WOULD PROPAGATE INTO THE ATLANTIC ZONES NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ATLC S OF 22N E OF 60W. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 24N80W AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM A SURFACE TROUGH FROM WESTERN CUBA...THROUGH THE LOW...TO THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. THIS LOW AND TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD TO THE SE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONFIRMED BY SCATTEROMETER DATA TODAY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT ON THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW TO ITS NORTHWEST TO SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND NORTHEASTWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THIS TROUGH TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A THIRD TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO 20N62W WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST TO NORTHWEST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH PRODUCING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS. THESE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT...HISPANIOLA SATURDAY...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON SUNDAY. SOUTH OF 22N EAST OF 60W...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE SWELL GENERATED BY A POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO PROPAGATE INTO THIS REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.