000 AGXX40 KNHC 090724 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 324 AM EDT FRI SEP 9 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH A 1018-1020 MB HIGH PRES OVER THE NE GULF. UNDER THIS WEATHER PATTERN...EXPECT GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS...AND SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 2-4 FT. THE NRN PORTION OF A TRPCL WAVE CURRENTLY ANALYZED IN THE FAR WRN CARIBBEAN SEA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND ACROSS THE SW GULF SAT THROUGH SUN. EXCEPT FOR MODERATE NE WINDS EXPECTED IN THE FAR ERN PORTION OF ZONE GMZ025 IN THE EVENINGS THROUGH MON...THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACTS ON WINDS AND SEAS BUT COULD BRING AN INCREASE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS TO ZONE GMZ025 SAT AND SAT NIGHT...AND IN ZONE GMZ023 SUN AND SUN NIGHT PRIMARILY TO THE S OF 20N. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN A GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS SUN THROUGH TUE NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT AVERAGE CONFIDENCE NE AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE TRPCL N ATLC SUN THROUGH TUE NIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE FLOW COVERING MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH THE CULPRIT ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER WRN CUBA. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE RIDING AROUND THE ' PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE. ASSOCIATED ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS DEPICTED BY THE IMAGERY TO BE CONFINED OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE SEA WHERE RESULTANT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING. THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A TRPCL WAVE AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG 87W S OF 21N. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY AND TONIGHT...HOWEVER THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL LINGER BEHIND THE WAVE THROUGH SUN NIGHT AS SHOWN IN THE MOISTURE GUIDANCE OF THE MODELS. ANOTHER TRPCL WAVE IS OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 69W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS UNDER DRY AIR ALOFT AND ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THE WAVE S OF 13N AND N OF 16N. THIS WAVE WILL REACH THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN TODAY...THE WRN CARIBBEAN SEA SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...AND MOVE INLAND CNTRL AMERICA MON. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN AND CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE SEA IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE BEGINNING TONIGHT AND INTO SUN AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME. RELATED SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 5-7 FT THROUGH SUN NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 4-6 FT ON MON. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES WITH RELATIVELY LOW SEAS OF 1-3 FT ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVER THE NRN TRPCL N ATLC WATERS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND INCREASING TSTMS ARE NOTED FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 55W AND 61W DUE TO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG A PSN FROM 22N58W TO JUST SE OF GUADELOUPE AS OF 06Z THIS MORNING. A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS OF 5-6 FT NEAR THE TROUGH. WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT NE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO INFILTRATE THE FAR NE AND ERN PORTION OF THE TRPCL N ATLC ZONES ON SUN WITH SEAS GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 7 FT...THEN POSSIBLY HIGHER TO 10 FT IN THE FAR NE PORTION LATE MON INTO TUE AS A LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING NW PASSES JUST TO THE NE OF THE THESE ZONES. THE FORECAST FOR THE AFFECTED WATERS OF THESE ZONE WILL RELY HIGHLY ON THE FUTURE PROGRESS OF THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 29N73W SW TO THE CNTRL BAHAMAS AND TO CNTRL CUBA AS OF 06Z THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE BASIN FROM 32N72W TO THE CNTRL BAHAMAS. IN ADDITION TO THE PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH AND AN ANTICYCLONE OVER WRN CUBA IS ASSISTING WITH THE PRESENT ONGOING SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY SEEN OVER MUCH OF THE CNTRL AND SE BAHAMAS AND EXTENDING TO ALONG THE E CNTRL COAST OF CUBA. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT WESTWARD TOWARDS S FL TODAY AND TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY. THE SURFACE TROUGH NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 22N58W TO JUST SE OF GUADELOUPE WILL MOVE NW ACROSS ZONES AMZ121 AND AMZ125 TODAY AND TONIGHT...ACROSS ZONE AMZ119 SAT AND SAT NIGHT AND ZONE AMZ117 SUN AND SUN NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OVER S FL MON AND MON NIGHT. BESIDES A NE TO SE WIND SHIFT NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH REGARDS TO WINDS AND SEAS. OTHERWISE WEAK HIGH PRES WITH AXIS NEAR OR ALONG 31N WILL MAINTAIN HOLD OF THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE AREA WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS N OF ABOUT 22N. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NRN PORTION OF A TRPCL WAVE ANALYZED NEAR 69W AT 06Z THIS MORNING. AS THIS FEATURE PASSES ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 22N THE GRADIENT BEHIND IT WILL TIGHTEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ELY WINDS TO PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG INTENSITY BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA THROUGH EARLY ON SUN. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.