000 AGXX40 KNHC 081808 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 208 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH A 1018-1020 MB HIGH PRES OVER THE NE GULF. UNDER THIS WEATHER PATTERN...EXPECT GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 4 FT. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON FRI...AND ACROSS THE SW GULF SAT AND SUN...SLIGHTLY ENHANCING THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS NEAR THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA IN THE EVENING...THEN DRIFTS WESTWARD ACROSS THE SW GULF EACH NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS. AN UPPER- LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF IS GENERATING FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER NEAR TSTMS. THE UPPER-LOW IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST OF TEXAS BY LATE FRI. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT EXTENDS ALONG 83W OR FROM WESTERN CUBA INTO NE HONDURAS AND ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON FRI. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND IS ONLY PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS. THIS WAVE WILL REACH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FRI...THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY LATE SAT...AND EXIT W OF THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EAST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS OF 4-6 FT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 1-3 FT ARE EXPECTED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA ON FRI. FARTHER EAST OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. PRESSURES REMAIN HIGH IN THIS AREA...AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION. IN FACT...A RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWS A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THIS REGION EXTENDING ALONG 58W FROM 15N-20N. DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WHERE CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 8-9 FT IS NOTED E OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO ABOUT 53W. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH OVER THE WATERS NE...THEN N OF THE LEEWARDS THROUGH FRI. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS 31N68W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W TO 21N76W. THIS TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS... AND IT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT WESTWARD TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRI. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME INCREASE IN WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS THIS EVENING AND LIKELY TONIGHT. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED... AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 58W FROM 15N-20N. A RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWS VERY WELL THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE OVER FORECAST ZONE AMZ127 THROUGH FRI AS THIS TROUGH MOVE NW ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND 6 TO 8 FT SEAS. OTHERWISE...A WEAK RIDGE WITH AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG 31N WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION N OF 22N. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...SLIGHTLY ENHANCING EASTERLY WINDS S OF 22N THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH E WINDS PULSING TO 20 TO 25 KT OFF THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA THIS EVENING. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.