000 AGXX40 KNHC 071827 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 227 PM EDT WED SEP 7 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH A 1018-1020 MB HIGH PRES OVER THE NE GULF. UNDER THIS WEATHER PATTERN...EXPECT GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 5 FT. AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF SW FLORIDA WILL DRIFT WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THU...SUPPORTING SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NW INTO TEXAS THROUGH BY SAT...ALLOWING A FEW SHOWERS TO PERSIST INTO THE N CENTRAL GULF. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON FRI AND ACROSS THE SW GULF SAT AND SUN...SLIGHTLY ENHANCING THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS NEAR THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA IN THE EVENING...THEN DRIFTS WESTWARD ACROSS THE SW GULF EACH NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2 TO 4 FT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RECENT ASCAT PASS REVEALS THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEAS HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 79W. IN ADDITION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME INVERTED-V PATTERN IN THE CLOUD FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE WAVE SUPPORTED FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THIS MORNING...BUT NOW THE SAME SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWS GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ARE NOTED ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED BETWEEN 80W AND THE COAST OF NICARAGUA HAS WEAKENED...AND NOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FLARING UP JUST AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 15N-18N. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER NEAR TSTMS. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH SEAS OF 6-7 FT NEAR THE WAVE AXIS AND 4-6 FT ELSEWHERE. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU...REACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON FRI. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS 55W LATER TODAY...ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THU...THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FRI...AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SAT. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND SEAS OF 6-8 FT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...BUT THESE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS THROUGH THU NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITHIN ABOUT 90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND NEAR THE ABC ISLANDS. THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE WILL ALSO ENHANCE WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THESE TWO AREAS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN EARLIER ALTIMETER PASS AND BUOY 41047 LOCATED NEAR 27.5N71.5W INDICATED RESIDUAL NORTHERLY SWELL OF 6-7 FT PUSHING INTO THE BAHAMAS. THIS SWELL EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WATERS E OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SEA HEIGHTS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO 4-5 FT BY THU MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...EXPECT BUILDING SEAS IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE ACROSS FORECAST ZONE AMZ127 IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED SECOND TROPICAL WAVE. A WEAK RIDGE WITH AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG 31N WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION N OF 22N. THE PASSAGE OF A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES WILL ENHANCE WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 22N. WINDS MAY PULSE TO 25 KT OFF THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND THU EVENING. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.