000 AGXX40 KNHC 061807 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 207 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE RIDGE FROM HIGH PRES OVER THE SE CONUS DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS MORNING...SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NE GULF WITH SEAS OF 3-4 FT. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT CROSSES SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE-E WINDS ARE EXPECTED JUST W OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A THERMAL TROUGH. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE SE GULF AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON FRI... AND MOVE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY SAT MORNING...ENHANCING WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH IN THE REGION. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W AND EXTENDS FROM DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO WESTERN VENEZUELA. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES W ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY AND THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WED AND THU. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE WAVE WEAKENS. IN ADDITION...CONVECTION HAS ALSO DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE YESTERDAY...BUT SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS STILL NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS MAINLY N OF 16N BETWEEN 68W AND 71W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE EAST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE UNFAVORABLE, AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE IS UNLIKELY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THIS WEEK. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS 55W THU...ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THU NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT. A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE SE AND S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY SAT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. RECENT REPORTS FROM BUOY 41002 NEAR 32N75W INDICATE NORTHERLY SWELL OF 9-10 FT IS STILL IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST WATERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 71W AND 77W. THIS SWELL EVENT IS ASSOCIATED WITH POST- TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE WHICH IS LOCATED ABOUT 95 NM S OF THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND AT 06/1500 UTC. THE SWELL IS REACHING THE EASTERN COASTLINES OF THE BAHAMAS...AND MAY BE POSING A BOATING RISK IN EXPOSED INLETS AND MARINAS. THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS SWELL IS STILL NOT BEING INITIALIZED WELL BY ANY WAVE MODEL AND THIS SWELL EVENT MAY PERSIST WITH WAVE HEIGHTS ONLY GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MEANWHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE TO BE ACTIVE ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N68W TO SOUTH FLORIDA. A WEAK RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE SOUTH OF THE TROUGH. THE TROUGH WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE THROUGH WED...WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING ALONG ROUGHLY 31N...MAINTAINING GENERALLY LIGHT E WINDS N OF 27N. GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM 22N TO 27N WHILE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EAST WINDS WILL PERSIST S OF 22N W OF 70W BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. WINDS MAY PULSE TO 25 KT OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA INTO THE APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TONIGHT AND WED NIGHT. STRONG WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE NORTHERN PORTION OF ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO SAT WITH 5 TO 6 FT SEAS. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.