000 AGXX40 KNHC 051842 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 242 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE RIDGE RIDGE IS BUILDING FROM HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS. THIS IS MAINTAINING GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 5 FT. LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS WEATHER PATTERN AND MARINE CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING HOURS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE INTO THE SW GULF EACH NIGHT THROUGH MID-WEEK. A SURGE OF FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH...WITH SEAS BRIEFLY BUILDING TO 5-6 FT IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE SE GULF AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY ON FRI...AND MOVE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY EARLY SAT...ENHANCING THE THERMAL TROUGH IN THE REGION. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 65W/66W. A 1009 MB LOW PRES IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 15N66W AT 1500 UTC. THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRES IS PRODUCING STRONG WINDS...SQUALLS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS. CURRENTLY... SURFACE DATA...BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND AN ASCAT PASS INDICATE THAT WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW GALE FORCE AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDE TO 8-10 FT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE/LOW. AS A RESULT...THE GALE WARNING WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE THIS MORNING. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRES REMAINS DISORGANIZED. THIS DISTURBANCE COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY...AND OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA LATER TODAY AND ON TUESDAY AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON TUE...AND ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WED AND THU. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN PRODUCING MAINLY FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND SEAS OF 8-10 FT. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY ON FRI. FOR NOW...TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE IS UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE WAVE APPROACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE THIS WEEK. EXPECT NE WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE AND SEAS BELOW 8 FT ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH WED EVENING. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC BY EARLY THU...BUT IS FORECAST TO HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT IN TERMS OF WINDS...SEAS AND CONVECTION COMPARED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LINGERING NORTHERLY SWELL BETWEEN NE FLORIDA AND BERMUDA ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH LATE TUE. AN EARLIER ALTIMETER PASS AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SEAS OF 8-11 FT BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N71W TO 26N80W. THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT SE REACHING FROM 31N70W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY TUE MORNING... THEN MOVE SLOWLY BACK WED AND THU WHILE DISSIPATING. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 22N... INCLUDING THE APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH WED EVENING. .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ023...CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. .AMZ025...OFFSHORE WATERS LEEWARD ISLANDS... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER..WARNINGS... ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.