000 AGXX40 KNHC 050750 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 350 AM EDT MON SEP 5 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE RIDGE RIDGE IS BUILDING FROM HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF THIS MORNING. THIS IS MAINTAINING LIGHT NE TO E BREEZES ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES OVER THE NW GULF. SEAS AREA 1 TO 3 FT IN THE EASTERN GULF WITH 2 TO 4 FT IN THE WESTERN GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING WEST ACROSS THE SW GULF...ENHANCED IN PART BY A SLOW MOVING TROPICAL WAVE THAT WILL TRANSIT WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TUE. THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS THAT WILL SHIFT NW ACROSS THE VERACRUZ COAST THROUGH MIDDAY. THE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AGAIN EACH EVENING THROUGH MID WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THIS MORNING FOR THE ATLC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS AROUND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. SHIP BATFR28 INDICATED NE TO E WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 KT AT 06Z...IN LINE WITH OUTPUT FROM AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE GALES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. BUOY AND ALTIMETER DATA INDICATE WAVE HEIGHTS OF AT LEAST 12 FT. EARLIER OBSERVATIONS HINTED THAT WEAK LOW PRES ALONG THE WAVE CROSS THE ISLANDS NEAR MARTINIQUE LATE IN THE EVENING. RECENT COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY FOR THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM MARTINIQUE TO DOMINICA AND GUADELOUPE. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST...REACHING THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TUE AND EXITING WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE FARTHER EAST IN THE ATLC WILL APPROACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY MID WEEK...BUT HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT IN TERMS OF WINDS...SEAS AND CONVECTION COMPARED TO THE WAVE CURRENTLY. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN ALTIMETER PASS FROM AROUND 03Z INDICATED SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT STILL PRESENT IN THE AREA N OF 29N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W...LIKELY DUE TO NORTHERLY SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. GLOBAL WAVE GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THROUGH LATE TODAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS OVER THIS SAME AREA SUPPORTING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ELSEWHERE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE FROM 1020 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 30N63W SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THE ALTIMETER PASS ALONG REGIONAL BUOYS INDICATE SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT OVER ALL EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...SLIGHTLY HIGHER S OF 22N WHERE WINDS HAVE BEEN 15 T0 20 KT. THE PASSAGE OF A FAIRLY STRONG TROPICAL WAVE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN THE FRESH EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH FRESH TO STRONG FLOW EXPECTED N OF HISPANIOLA TOWARD THE APPROACHES OF THE WINDWARD CHANNEL LATE EACH DAY THROUGH MID WEEK AFTER THE WAVE PASSES. .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ023...CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. .AMZ025...OFFSHORE WATERS LEEWARD ISLANDS... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.