000 AGXX40 KNHC 041841 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 241 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND ANOTHER TROUGH ALONG THE MEXICO COAST WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN GULF THROUGH MONDAY. THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL DISSIPATE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES EARLY THIS WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT MAINLY MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE GULF BASIN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE EXCEPTIONS TO THESE WINDS WILL BE NIGHTLY LOCALLY FRESH WINDS THE NEXT THREE NIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE DUE TO A THERMAL TROUGH MOVING OFF THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN...AND AN ENHANCEMENT OF WINDS POSSIBLY MID TO LATE WEEK AS A TROPICAL WAVE CROSSES THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL EXIT THE BASIN ACROSS MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A STRONGER TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR 60W WITH A POORLY DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH MONDAY...THEN TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUESDAY. THE WAVE WILL THEN CROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY. FRESH TO STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE MAINLY NORTH OF 15N AS THE WAVE TRAVERSES THE ISLANDS TONIGHT...AND UNTIL THE WAVE REACHES NEAR 75W ON TUESDAY. IT IS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD THAT THE LONGEST FETCH OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR TO BUILD SEAS. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE FUTURE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH MOST GLOBAL MODELS NOT SHOWING ANY APPRECIABLE ORGANIZATION FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WITH AN AXIS NEAR 35W OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL CROSS 55W THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. SURFACE TROUGHING NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE WEAKENING. THIS TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE AXIS THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 29N65W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WILL MERGE JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS S OF 22N...PARTICULARLY N OF THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER THE WAVE PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH...THE RIDGING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL POSSIBLY SUPPORT PULSING OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA MID TO LATE WEEK. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.