000 AGXX40 KNHC 040723 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 323 AM EDT SUN SEP 4 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. TSTMS ACTIVITY HAS FINALLY DIMINISHED ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY TROUGH REACHING ACROSS THE NE GULF...AN EXTENDING FROM POST- TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE NOW OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST. A WEAK PRES PATTERN IS IN PLACE CURRENTLY. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ALONG ROUGHLY 27N/28N S OF THE TROUGH REACHING THE MID GULF. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS THE BASIN WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OFF THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE THE USUAL EVENING TROUGH IS SETTING UP. THIS WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SW GULF LATE MON THROUGH MID WEEK BUT WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES THROUGH MID WEEK ALLOWING MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH NE TO E WINDS OVER THE SE GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH 3 TO 5 FT SEAS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN...LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ADJACENT ATLC WATERS AHEAD OF A WELL DEVELOPED TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE AREA ROUGHLY AT 56W/57W. LOW PRES ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14.5N56W APPEARS A LITTLE MORE DEVELOPED...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 90 NM IN THE NE SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. A RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATED WINDS TO 30 KT WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE CENTER. THE WAVE WILL CROSS THE ISLANDS AND ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE TODAY...REACH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY LATE SUN...THE SW CARIBBEAN BY LATE MON AND EXIT W OF THE BASIN THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW PRES ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE...ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SHOWS IT DISSIPATING THROUGH TONIGHT LEAVING THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE TO CONTINUE. A RECENT ALTIMETER SHOWED 9 FT SEAS OFF GUADELOUPE...AND SEAS WILL BUILD OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN AND ATLC PASSAGES ACCORDINGLY THROUGH TODAY AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH...ALONG WITH PULSES OF 20 TO 25 KT NE WINDS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT MOVES WESTWARD WITH ONLY MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF AS MOVES THROUGH THAT REGION IN THE COMING DAYS. WINDS OVER THE SE AND S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL BE LIGHTER THAN USUAL AS THE TROPICAL WAVE DISRUPTS THE NORMAL PRES GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL EXIT THE BASIN MON...AND ANOTHER FARTHER EAST WILL REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY LATE TUE...AND MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1020 MB HIGH PRES AREA CENTERED NEAR 28N65W THROUGH 29N65W. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 29N. SW WINDS E OF THE FRONT AND N OF THE RIDGE ARE 15 TO 20 KT...STILL INFLUENCED BY POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE N OF THE AREA. SEAS ARE UP TO 9 FT IN THIS AREA AS WELL...IN PART DUE TO NORTHERLY SWELL FROM HERMINE. 2 TO 4 FT SEAS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA UNDER THE RIDGE...MAINLY FROM 22N TO 29N. SOUTH OF 22N...THE PATTERN WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY EAST OF THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SOUTH OF 22N TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT. THIS WILL BE BRING FRESH E WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONGER WINDS MAY PULSE OFF THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA INTO THE TCI...SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH IN ALL AREAS OF THE BASINS AS THE TROPICAL WAVE PASSES AND THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS NORTHWARD. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.