000 AGXX40 KNHC 031843 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 243 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEASTERN GULF TO THE CENTRAL GULF WILL DRIFT NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT. A NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF WILL DRIFT WESTWARD TO THE MEXICO COAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THROUGH TONIGHT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHWEST GULF THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF...WITH LESSER COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. THIS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL THEN BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN GULF AND EXTREME WESTERN GULF ON SUNDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF. EARLY IN THE WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WILL SUPPORT MAINLY MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MAY BE PERIODIC FRESH WINDS THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND NIGHTLY PULSES OF FRESH WINDS OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE DUE TO A THERMAL TROUGH EXITING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT...THEN OVER CENTRAL AMERICA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE NORTH OF THE COLOMBIA COAST. RIDGING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL SUPPORT FRESH AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY STRONG WINDS NORTH OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ALONG 54W IS ALREADY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS NORTH OF THE LOW FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES...BASED ON RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA...WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT. THE ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS WELL AS WINDS WILL PROPAGATE WESTWARD WITH THE WAVE S OF 22N OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN ATLC WATERS...AS WELL AS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH MONDAY. THE WAVE WILL ENTER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY TUESDAY AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. FRESH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE EXTREME NORTHERN PORTION OF THE ATLC WATERS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT. THESE WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH OF OUR FORECAST WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. REMNANT SWELL UP TO 8 FT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY N OF 30N BETWEEN 65W AND 75W THROUGH MONDAY. A LINGERING TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR HERMINE INTO OUR NORTHERN WATERS WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS S OF 22N ALONG AND NORTH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES SUNDAY...SHIFTING TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA BY SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS AS WELL AS BUILDING SEAS TO 11 FT MAINLY N OF 27N AND EAST OF 60W BEGINNING LATE MONDAY AND LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.