000 AGXX40 KNHC 021800 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT FRI SEP 2 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. TROPICAL STORM HERMINE IS CROSSING EASTERN GEORGIA AND WILL CONTINUE NE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH SATURDAY. A TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH FROM HERMINE WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL GULF THROUGH TONIGHT WITH NUMEROUS SQUALLS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF 20 TO 30 KT WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY LATE THIS EVENING. SEAS AROUND SUNRISE WERE 8 TO 14 FT WEST OF 86W N OF 27N AS REMNANT SWELL FROM EARLIER STRONGER WINDS LINGERED. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EVENING AS WINDS DIMINISH...WITH SEAS DROPPING BELOW 8 FT BY LATE THIS EVENING. THE TROUGH TRAILING FROM HERMINE MAY LINGER OVER THE EXTREME NE GULF OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ENHANCED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COASTAL TROUGH ALONG THE MEXICO COAST WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...WEAK RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE SW N ATLC TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO THE CENTRAL GULF WILL SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE BASIN WITH SEAS GENERALLY RUNNING FROM 2 TO 4 FT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE LOCALLY FRESH WINDS THAT ARE FORECAST EACH NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE ASSOCIATED WITH A THERMAL TROUGH. SEAS WILL BUILD TO A MAX OF 6 FT EACH NIGHT OVER THIS AREA. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A DISRUPTED CLIMATOLOGICAL RIDGING PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN ATLC DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF HERMINE WILL RESULT IN BENIGN MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH SATURDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 66W WILL MOVE WESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE TROUGH PASSES THE COLOMBIA COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG N OF THE COLOMBIA COAST. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS WESTWARD PAST 55W SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...THEN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SUNDAY MORNING...THEN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS WAVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. TROPICAL STORM HERMINE IS CROSSING E GEORGIA AND MOVING NE TOWARD THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE MOVING NORTH OF OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...S TO SW WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT WILL REMAIN MAINLY N OF 28N OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SEAS TO 14 FT POSSIBLE ALONG 31N. AS HERMINE INCREASES ITS DISTANCE FROM OUR FORECAST WATERS THIS WEEKEND...THE WINDS AND SEAS ALONG THE EXTREME NORTHERN PORTION OF THE ATLC ZONES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO BELOW 20 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH FROM HERMINE WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE...A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING HISPANIOLA WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS LATE THIS WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO ZONES SOUTH OF 22N E OF 70W. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.