000 AGXX40 KNHC 020803 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 403 AM EDT FRI SEP 2 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. HURRICANE HERMINE MADE LANDFALL IN THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA NEAR SAINT MARKS AT 2 AM EDT. SEAS OF 12 TO 15 FT IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS MORNING TO 6 TO 9 FT ACROSS NE FLORIDA BY MIDDAY AS HERMINE CONTINUES INLAND TO THE NNE. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE SE GULF WILL DIMINISH LATER TODAY AS WELL WITH 6 TO 9 FT SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FT. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN THIS MORNING. NUMEROUS SQUALLS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NE GULF WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS MORNING...BUT CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL FLOW AND HIGH MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF SHOWERS FROM THE NE GULF TO THE SW GULF THROUGH LATE TODAY. THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BECOME RE- ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF ALONG ROUGHLY 25N AND TROUGHING WILL SET UP OVER THE FAR SW GULF. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW AND 3 TO 5 FT SEAS. EXPECT A TROUGH TO FORM OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH EVENING...SUPPORTING BRIEF PERIODS OF 15 TO 20 KT WINDS AND SEAS TO 6 FT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN UPPER LOW CENTERED S OF JAMAICA NEAR 17N77W IS SUPPORTING A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO NEAR SAN ANDRES ISLAND IN THE SW CARIBBEAN...AS WELL AS STRONGER CONVECTION OFF THE CENTRAL COAST OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO NOTED OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN WHERE A TROUGH/TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. 20 TO 25 KT SE TO S WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN...RELATED TO HERMINE MAKING LANDFALL IN THE NE GULF. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THIS MORNING AS HERMINE WEAKENS AND MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER THE SE U.S. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG ROUGHLY 25N. THIS IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES N OF THE TROUGH OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN...AND FRESH TRADES OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. FRESH E TO SE WINDS MAY PULSE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS BETWEEN RIDGING N OF THE AREA AND LOWER PRES IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN ATLC WILL APPROACH THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS BY LATE SAT...CROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN...THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON INTO EARLY TUE AND EXIT THE SW CARIBBEAN BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL DISRUPT TRADE WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN BUT USHER STRONG WINDS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT OVER THE NE AND N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAKENING HURRICANE HERMINE IS MOVING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLEINTO GEORGIA AND ONWARD TO THE CAROLINAS TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY IMPACT ATLC WATERS OFF JACKSONVILLE...BUT NOT IN THE OFFSHORE AREAS BEYOND 60 NM OFF THE COAST. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE PLACE HOWEVER OVER MUCH OF THE ATLC WATERS N OF 28N W OF 75W TODAY WITH SEAS TO 8 TO 12 FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT N OF 28N AS HERMINE MOVES FARTHER AWAY. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF HERMINE TO THE NW OF THE REGION...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ALONG 25N/26N...LIFTING TO 27N/28N BY SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 22N EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL ALLOW FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS AND SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT OVER MOST OF THE REGION S OF 22N TO THE TURKS/CAICOS ISLANDS AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS INTO MID WEEK. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PERSIST N OF 22N. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.