000 AGXX40 KNHC 011838 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 238 PM EDT THU SEP 1 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. TROPICAL STORM HERMINE IS NEAR 27.8N 85.6W 989 MB AT 1700 UTC SEP 1 MOVING NNE AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. HERMINE IS SHOWING A BANDING EYE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AS IT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE NE GULF ON ITS WAY TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA. IT IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRI AS A MINIMAL HURRICANE. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 21 FT NEAR THE CENTER OF HERMINE OVER THE NE GULF BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 81W-87W. GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF...ALTHOUGH SEAS OVER THE NW GULF ARE 4 TO 6 FT IN E SWELL. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF STARTING FRI AS HERMINE MOVES FARTHER TO THE N OF THE REGION. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CROSSES THE WESTERN ATLC FROM 30N35W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W. THE RIDGE IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS ARE SEEN ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT FOR S OF 12N WHERE WINDS BECOME LIGHT TO GENTLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SEAS GENERALLY RANGED BETWEEN 5 AND 8 FT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN N OF 12N. A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE REGION FROM EASTERN ATLC IN THE VICINITY OF 37W. THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS SAT NIGHT...REACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY LATE SUN...AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY TUE. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL ALLOW TRADE WINDS TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN FROM LATE SAT INTO MON. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. T.S. HERMINE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TOWARD THE CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO JUST CLIP THE NW CORNER OF THE OFFSHORE AREA ON FRI AFTERNOON, THEN WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH AS HERMINE TRACKS TOWARD THE NE. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS MAINTAINING FRESH TRADES OFF THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA...BUT GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED NE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 16N57W TO 23N55W. THE TROUGH WILL PASS HISPANIOLA ON FRI AND HEAD NW THROUGH THE BAHAMAS ON SAT AND SUN. SOME INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPC3ED AS THE TROUGH PASSES...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS OR SEAS ARE EXPECTED. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN ATLC WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION S OF 22N LATE SAT INTO EARLY MON...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN E WINDS TO 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS IN THE 8 TO 10 FT RANGE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING FRI. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MCELROY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.