000 AGXX40 KNHC 010803 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 403 AM EDT THU SEP 1 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. TROPICAL STORM HERMINE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN THE EAST CENTRAL GULF ON ITS WAY TO THE BIG BEND AREA. IT IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL INTO THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE TOMORROW AS A MINIMAL HURRICANE. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 23 FT NEAR THE CENTER OF HERMINE OVER THE NE GULF BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 85W-89W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION COVERS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SOUTH OF 30N INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS. GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF...ALTHOUGH SEAS OVER THE NW GULF ARE 4 TO 6 FT IN E SWELL. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF STARTING FRI AS HERMINE MOVES FARTHER TO THE N OF THE REGION. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN ATLC AND SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD...MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. LIGHT TO MODERATE SE WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN HOWEVER AS T.S. HERMINE TO THE NORTH IS DISRUPTING THE RIDGE. SEAS ARE 6 TO 8 FT IN THE SE AND S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH 3 TO 5 FT IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE REGION FROM EASTERN ATLC...AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS SAT NIGHT...REACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY LATE SUN...AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY TUE. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL ALLOW TRADE WINDS TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN FROM LATE SAT INTO MON. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 28N W OF 75W IN ADVANCE OF T.S. HERMINE. THE STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STAY WEST OF THE OFFSHORE AREA...BUT MAY AFFECT WATERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA BY EARLY FRI. ELSEWHERE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS DISPLACED SOUTHWARD TO ALONG ROUGHLY 24N/25N. THIS IS MAINTAINING FRESH TRADES OFF THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA...BUT GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN ATLC WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION S OF 22N LATE SAT INTO EARLY MON...BRINGING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN E WINDS TO 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS APPROACHING 8 TO 10 FT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY. .GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY. HURRICANE WARNING TONIGHT. .GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.